2026全球企业财务困境风险监测与预警报告

CONTENTS INTRODUCTION3KEY FINDINGS6SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS7COUNTRY TRENDS8METHODOLOGY12HOW A&M CAN HELP12CONTACTS13 CORPORATE DISTRESSSPREADS ACROSS EUROPEAS BUSINESSES STRUGGLEWITH FRAGILE DEMANDAND TRADE INSTABILITY France and Germany among the top distressedmarkets; UK distress levels continue to riseA record 36% of European businesses lack balancesheet robustnessDiscretionary Retail, Manufacturing, Chemicals,Automotive are some of the most distressed sectors INTRODUCTION How we define distress According to the ADA methodology,companies classified as likely to be in distress havesignificant deficits in terms of both their financial andearnings situation. They have insufficient liquidityand/or inadequate and unsustainable capitalstructures and, at the same time, weak/insufficientprofitability, both on a stand-alone basis as well ascompared to their industry peers. Read more aboutthe methodology on page 12. Financial distress is accelerating andbecoming more entrenched across Europeanbusinesses as mounting macroeconomic andgeopolitical pressures eroded both earningsand balance sheet resilience in 2025. According to the latest Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) DistressAlert (ADA), 13.5% of companies in Europe are nowclassified as distressed, the highest level since at least2022 and up from 8.6% in 2024. All nine regions covered in the analysis recorded anincrease in the proportion of distressed companies in2025. Among major economies, the weakest spots wereItaly (18% of businesses identified as distressed), followedby France (16%), Nordics and Germany (both with around15%). In the UK, corporate distress has continued to rise,with 9% of companies classified as distressed, up from7% in 2024. The ADA assesses the balance sheet robustness andearnings resilience of thousands of companies across33 countries in Europe and the Middle East, identifyingfirms in distress as well as those showing weak financialfundamentals or deteriorating performance. Businesses lacking robustness are characterised by weakmetrics such as net debt, equity ratio and leverage, bothon a standalone basis and relative to industry peers. Many firms sitting in this cohort raised debt at the heightof the zero-rates era but have been unable to deleverageas expected, given the challenging market environmentand higher interest rates and inflation of recent years. Evenif the cost of debt has eased recently, for companies withweaker capital structures or business models, access tofinancing remains limited, as lenders stay selective in thecurrent business context. This points to a likely increase inrestructuring activity going forward. The widespread deterioration in 2025 highlights how thecumulative effect of cost pressures, fragile demand, andgeopolitical and trade instability is exposing underlyingbalance-sheet weaknesses of European corporates. Across the region, 36% of companies – the equivalent of1,628 businesses – are identified as lacking balance sheetrobustness, the highest proportion since at least 2022. Incountries including Germany, France and Italy, this sharerises to around 40%. Chart 1Key findingsTrends in corporate distress across Europe KEY FINDINGS Earnings performance has deterioratedmarkedly in 2025, according to the latestdata. The share of companies classified aslacking performance reached one in five,an increase of 53% year-on-year. Theseare firms that typically underperform in keymetrics such as revenue development,EBITDA margins and cash generation. All regions saw an increase in the percentage ofcompanies lacking performance, with France showingthe sharpest deterioration. The share of French firmsin this category nearly doubled from 12.8% in 2024 to22.5% in 2025; in the UK, the share of underperformingcompanies jumped from 9.8% to 16%. Companies inGermany, Italy and the Nordics also presented above-average levels of underperformance. Sluggish economic growth, slowing sales and tariffheadwinds have depressed earnings over the past year. Inindustries like Chemicals, Manufacturing and Automotive,competition from China and weak demand domesticallyhave added further pressure to already-weakened toplinegrowth and profitability. SECTOR HIGHLIGHTS At the sector level, pressure remains concentrated in industries most exposed to discretionaryspending and international supply chains. Fashion Retail and Specialised Retail, together withManufacturing and Chemicals, showed the highestdistress levels, with around 17% of companies flaggedas distressed. Automotive, Business Services andConstruction follow closely, with around 15% ofcompanies in distress. Chemicals experienced one of the largest increasesin distress year-on-year, a reflection of the crisisfacing Europe’s once-dominant industry. The sector’sstructural decline, resulting from weak demand, Chinesecompetition and high energy costs, has continued into2025 with a string of plant closures, output cuts, and shiftof production to other regions. Top distressed sectorsCompani