4月零售销售势头减弱：消费数据弱于预期

WeakeningretailsalesmomentuminAprilWorse-than-expected softnessin consumptiondata in ChinaConsumerRelated Jizhou Dong, CFA- NIHK April jizhou.dong@nomura.com+852 2252 1554SummerQian-NIHK China's total social retail sales were up only 0.2% y-y in April 2026, according to data from summer.qian@nomura.com+85222526220 the National Bureau of Statistics (18 May), further slowing down from the 1.7% y-y growthin March 2026, and also falling short of the Wind consensus of 2.0% y-y growth.Excludingthedragfromautosales,merchandisesales increasedby1.8%y-yinApril 2026, decelerating from the 3.2% y-y growth in March 2026. The further deceleration inretail sales growth in April suggests a broadening softness of the consumption sector, inourview,giventheabsenceofmeaningfulconsumption-relatedpolicystimulationonthedemand side; the recent positive signals in property sales volume across select tier-1 andtier-2 cities may not indicate a turnaround of the property market yet, in our view, and thuswillhave limitedimpactontheconsumptionsentimentaswell Looking into major consumption categories (Fig.1 and Fig. 2). Catering services sales were more resilient, registering 2.2% y-y growth in April 2026(vs. 2.9% in March 2026), while goods retail sales were slightly down by 0.1% y-y inApril 2026 (vs. up by 1.5% in March 2026). Consumer staples maintained their growth momentum in April: beverages,tobacco/liquor,and daily necessities segments recorded 3.6%,11.7%,and 3.5% y-ygrowth in April 2026, respectively (vs. 8.2%, 7.7%, and 4.6% y-y growth in March 2026),:Retail sales growth of the gold/jewelry sector slipped into a downtrend in April with a21.3% y-y decline in April 2026 (vs. 11.7% y-y growth in March 2026). We think thedecline was mainly owing to: (1) the fluctuations in gold and sliver prices; and (2) theoff-season for gold/jewelry sales.:Retail sales of home appliances further decreased, down by 15.1% y-y in April 2026,vs the 5.0% y-y decline in March 2026, mainly due to the fading support of thegovernment's trade-in subsidies, in our view.Petroleum products' retail sales declined again in April 2026, down by 6.5% y-y from0.1% y-y growth in March 2026 Preferrednamesintheconsumerspace In light of thefurther weakened retail momentum and lack of policy-driven demand,wevisible margin trends, and attractive valuations. We continue to prefer ANTA(2020 HK,pessimistic on its acquisition of stake in Puma (PUM GR, Not rated). We also like LaopuGold (6181 HK, Buy) in the retail space, as we believe Laopu is able to maintain alike Haidilao (6862 HK, Buy) considering its potential to deliver better-than-consensussalesperformanceofnewbrand(s)followingtherecentmanagementreshuffle. Production Complete: 2026-05-18 10:34 UTC Source:NBS, Nomura research Appendix A-1 See Disclaimers for Nomura Group entity details. Analyst Certification about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this Research report, (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directlyor indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this Research report and (3) no part of our compensation is tied toany specific investment banking transactions performed by Nomura Securities International, Inc., Nomura International plc or any other NomuraGroup company IssuerSpecificRegulatoryDisclosures The terms "Nomura" and "Nomura Group" used herein refer to Nomura Holdings, Inc. and its affliates and subsidiaries, including NomuraSecurities International, Inc. ('NSI) and Instinet, LLC (ILLC"), U. S. registered broker dealers and members of SIPC. A1o The Nomura Group is a registered market maker in the securities /related derivatives of the issuer. Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD125 for ANTA is based on 25x F12M P/E, equivalent to its five-year averageforwardP/E.Thebenchmark indexofANTAis theHang SengIndex.Risks that may impede the achievement of the target price Downside risks to our Buy rating and target price for ANTAweaker-than-expectedmacroeconomicdynamics. Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD1,114 is based on 22.5x FY26F P/E, consistent with Laopu's high sales andRisks thatmay impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks include: 1)any significant weakening of goldprice, 2) higher-than-expected fashion risk, 3) weaker-than-expected macro environment. Valuation Methodology Our target price of HKD18.40 is based on 20x forward 12-month P/E, +1SD above its three-yearhistorical average. The benchmark index of the stock is HSl.Risks thatmay impede the achievement of the target price Key downside risks include: 1)slower-than-expected operational ImportantDisclosures Onlineavailabilityofresearchandconflict-of-interestdisclosures Nomura Group research is available on www.nomuranow.com/research, Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Factset, LSEG.Important disclosures may be read at http://go.nomuranow.com/research/m/Disclosures or requested from Nomura Securities International, Inc.If you