台积电：仍是最值得信赖的AI复合增长股

Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd Edward Hou, CFA+852 2123 2623edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Outperform Price Target 2,780.00 TWD(2,200.00OLD)430.00 USD(351.00OLD) TSMC: Still the most trustworthy AI compounder Expecting 28% EPS CAGR in the next 2.5 years, we don’t see an Apple/Intel collaboration,even if true, affecting TSMC’s position & set TP at NT$2,780 on 20x 1-year forward P/E. Intel & Samsung Foundry may gain traction, but only limitedly & on geopoliticalreasons or mature nodes.With no sign suggesting Intel narrowing the gap with TSMCtechnology- & cost-wise, we believe Apple will produce only “small” products at Intel.Samsung Foundry is fundamentally improving, but on 4nm or “2nm” (but equivalent toTSMC’s 3nm), while TSMC’s is already mass-producing the true 2nm. Any of these, even iftrue, won’t lead to lower revenue, as TSMC’s revenue is bound by capacity. Raising projection on better AI visibility.CSPs reporting higher capex & encouragingeconomies makes us model higher capex, revenue, margins & earnings for TSMC. We expectrevenue to rise by 35% & EPS by 50% this year, and both at 24% CAGR in the next 2 years.And we’re broadly above consensus in both revenue & EPS. Higher capex & more CoWoS.We are now above consensus in 2027 capex & model US$68B. More CoWoS is expected too, from TSMC, & to a lesser degree others too, & we expectIntel’s EMIB to gain traction & expand capacity additionally. On 20x forward P/E, we set price target at NT$2,780, c. 23% upside as of May 15.With investors chasing new ideas driving the recent rally, TSMC is now at c. 20% discountvs. SOX. We however see TSMC the most trustworthy compounder in AI space, with robustgrowth from data center AI now & optionality from Edge AI later.Outperform. Investment Implications We raise our target price to NT$2,780 on the same 20x forward P/E & higher EPS. ReiterateOutperform. DETAILS Intel & Samsung Foundry may win “small” projects, but on geopolitical considerations or mature nodes. TSMC'sfundamental strength stays intact & growth is still bound by capacity. •We do see the likelihood of Apple (AAPL US, covered by Bernstein US Tech team) becoming a customer of Intel (INTC US,covered by Bernstein US Semi team) wafer foundry service, but believe it would be on geopolitical considerations, as all theindications suggest Intel is not narrowing the technology gap vs. TSMC. The higher cost of production in the US vs. in Taiwanis also a burden that Intel can't avoid, even if Intel magically catches up with TSMC in technology. Hence, we expect thatApple will produce unimportant products with small volumes at Intel. There may be a sentiment & hence possibly valuationimpact, but the business impact, if any, on TSMC should be negligible as demands waiting for capacity now will pick up anycapacity released by Apple. •Samsung Foundry on the other hand is winning customers on fundamental improvements, as the company turned its focuson execution in the past 2 years. Exynos 2600 is built with "2nm" but Samsung's "2nm" is more like an enhanced version of"3nm" which Samsung has been producing for a few years. The yield is hence good enough, and that explains why Exynos2600 is adopted in some Samsung Galaxy phones. Samsung's 4nm demand is also rising, thanks to HBM4 base die & LPU(Language Processing Unit, specifically LP30) from Groq/NVIDIA (NVDA US, covered by Bernstein US Semi team). Thatsaid, we highlight that compared with 2nm that TSMC is producing now, these are mature nodes and TSMC's technologyleadership does not change. The size of the production is also small vs. TSMC's large size, and does not alter the situationthat demand exceeds supply for TSMC. With better AI demand visibility, we revise up the projection for TSMC. •With strong AI demand, encouraging economies & higher capex reported by CSPs, and the better-than-expected marginsguided by TSMC, we revise up the projection. Now we model TSMC's revenue to rise 35% in USD this year. Gross margin(GM) is expected to expand to 65%, up from 60% last year (Exhibit 1 - Exhibit 2), & together with rapid revenue growth topropel EPS to rise c. 50% to NT$102 this year (Exhibit 3 - Exhibit 4). •From the high base of this year, 2027 & 2028 is expected to rise robustly too, with revenue & EPS compounding at 23.5% &24.4% CAGR, respectively, in this period. •Compared to consensus, we are slightly below on 2027 margins on heavier depreciation, but are generally above in bothrevenue and EPS from 2026 to 2028 (Exhibit 5). EXHIBIT 1:Now we model TSMC's revenue in USD to rise35% this year, 25% in 2027, and 22% in 2028. EXHIBIT 2:We expect TSMC’s gross margin to expand to65% in 2026, vs. 60% last year. EXHIBIT 4:Our earnings estimates are generally aboveconsensus across 2026-2028. Capex & capacity is revised up accordingly too. We're now above consensus on 2027 capex. •From 2023 to 2025, TSMC's mature-node utilization was actually low as TSMC,