F1Q预览 - Workday全力以赴迎接当下

CompanyWorkday Date15 May 2026 Rating BloombergWDAY US ReutersWDAY.OQ North AmericaUnited States TMTSoftware Valuation & Risks F1Q Preview-Workday and night to meet the Brad ZelnickResearch Analyst+1-212-250-8563 As Workday heads into F1Q earnings, investors are looking for signs of stabilityas the company navigates a more measured demand environment. We believe theindustry-wide trend of budget reprioritization presents a near-term headwind forthe core HCM market. With co-founder Aneel Bhusri back in the CEO seat, adevelopment partners and employees are very pleased with, we anticipate arenewed focus on organic innovation and reestablishing a foundation for growth.Against a backdrop of more muted checks, we struggle to see 1Q as a meaningful Bhavin Shah, CFAResearch Analyst Nick GiovacchiniResearch Associate Chris FountainResearch Associate Our conversations with partners support an in-line quarter against a continuedmeasured environment. In general, the year was off to a slow start, with longersalescycles as customers deliberate more carefully on large-scaletransformations amidst macro uncertainty. International feedback was mixed.One partner told us momentum is finally starting to build, while another noted thatthe impact of regional conflicts has only intensified and slowed decision making.Vertically,partners noted positive trends in tech and telco,state&localgovernment,financials,and healthcare,while manufacturing and higher We expect F1Q results for Subscription revenue, 12-month Subscription backlog,and non-GAAP operating margin will all likely come roughly in line with, or slightlyahead of, guidance. Looking to F2Q, we think there is a risk that guidance for vs. Street 14.6%. For FY27, we expect a reiteration of 12-13% Subscriptionrevenue growth and a 30.0% non-GAAP operating margin. All considered, webelieve shares trading at15x (Street CY27E) uFCF adjusted for SBC arecompelling for a company with low-double-digit revenue growth and expandingmargins. We acknowledge the multiple reflects long-term AI uncertainties, likely Thoughts on F1Q •SubscriptionRevenue:Takingintoconsiderationourpartnerconversations, historical performance, and our view on guidance, weanticipate modest upside to 1Q Subscription revenue (roughly mid-single-digit million dollars), slightly below recent beats on average. Wenote sequential growth is depressed partially due to a ~$15mn impact to •Non-GAAP Operating Margins:Similar to revenues, we expect non-GAAP operating margins to come in line with guidance of 30.5% (+30bpsy/y) or slightly better. We estimate this implies ~11% y/y in reported OpEx •12-Month Subscription Backlog:Street is modeling 12-month backloggrowth of +15.0% y/y vs. guidance for 14.5-15.5%, which we believe isappropriate and in line with our estimate. 1Q 12-month subscriptionbacklog growth benefits from ~1.5pts of M&A benefit (Sana, Paradox, Thoughts on F2Q Guidance •SubscriptionRevenue:Street/DB models reflect 5.0%q/q growth,aligned with prior company messaging and below average q/q growthrates, as expected when considering our softer checks. We expect •Margins:Street is modeling 30.0% non-GAAP OM for F2Q, whichembeds ~12% y/y OpEx growth and we believe is an appropriate startingpoint given recent OpEx growth and integrating M&A as well as when •12-Month Subscription Backlog:Street's current 14.7% y/y growthexpectation is modestly ahead of our 14.4% estimate and implies q/qgrowth of 3.4% (on Street) vs the last two years actuals of 3.3% (adj. fortenant deals) and 3.0%, respectively. We believe guidance is at risk of Thoughts on FY27 •Subscription Revenue:We expect current guidance of 12-13% to bereiterated and expect Street estimates to be roughly unchanged exitingthe event (currently at the guidance midpoint) based on our industryconversations. We note in the last two years of guidance updates with 1Q •Margins:We expect current guidance of 30.0% non-GAAP operatingmargin to be reiterated as we believe the company is leaning slightlymore in favor of product innovation as compared to the previous regime,perhaps limiting upward revisions in the near-term. We estimate a 30.0% Appendix 1 Important Disclosures Prices are current as of the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated and are sourced from localexchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Other information is sourced from Deutsche Bank, subject Important Disclosures Required by U.S. Regulators 2-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) may act as a market maker or liquidity provider in the financial instruments 8-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking 14-Deutsche Bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company within the past year for non- 15-This company has been a client of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. within the past year during which time it received Important Disclosures Required by Non-U.S.