F3/26业绩：回归增长轨道

TakatoWatabeEquity Analyst Takato.Watabe@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5436Ryoichi WatanabeEquity Analyst F3/26 Results: Return toGrowth Trajectory Ryoichi.Waleymufg.com+81 3 6836-8929Kayoko ShojiResearch Associate Kayoko.Shoj@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5437Kano FujitaResearch Associate +81 3 6836-8932Sumitomo Chemical (4005.T, 4005 JT) Unchanged Direction of next 12-monthconsensus EPS Impact to our thesisSource: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Financialresultsversusconsensus Petrochemical Majors | Japan Industry ViewAttractivePrice target￥850Shr price, close (May 14, 2026)￥604Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)￥986.8Avg daily trading value (bn)￥5.5 F3/26coreOPexceeded bothguidanceand ourforecast. F3/27 core OP guidance calls for profit growth despite factoring in the worsening Middle East situation.The share price rose sharply after the results announcement, and we expect SumitomoChemical:F3/26Results1st further upside. Impression:Profit GrowthGuidancea Surprise(14May2026)Petrochemical Majors: Jan-Mar Results Preview:Potential Guidance Surprises (27Apr 2026)Sumitomo Chemical: Rabigh F12/261Q Earnings:Profitablefor1st Time in Around Four Years (26Apr 2026)Sumitomo Chemical: Benefit from Crude OilSpike (12 Mar 2026)Chemicals:Naphtha Procurement Disrupted Dueto Situation in Iran (5 Mar 2026) 1:30pm on May 14 and held an online business strategy briefing at 4:30pm. Asalready reported, F3/26 core oP topped both company guidance and our forecast,so solid results. While ICT-related profits declined, improvements in pharma andpetrochemicals lifted underlying core OP by around ￥5Obn, excluding asset salegains. For F3/27, the company guides core OP at ￥215bn, up 3% YoY. On an realbasis, we expect an increase of around 80bn, driven by growth in pharma,agrochemicals, and ICT, as well as improved profitability in petrochemicals. Thecompany said that it has factored in a negative impact of around ￥1Obn from theworsening of situation in the Middle East. We see potential for further upside,particularly in petrochemicals, given improving refining margins at Petro Rabigh. Onbusiness strategy,the company reiterated the growthpotential of agrochemicalssuch as Indiflin and biorationals, and highlighted efforts in ICT to establishastructure aligned with the Al shift in semiconductor materials. The company raisedits dividend plan for F3/27, and said it aims to restore dividends to ￥24 at an earlystage. Our impression from the briefing is positive. The share price rose by morethan 10% intraday following the results announcement, but valuation remainsattractive, so we expect further upside. Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,referto the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. F3/28e EPS ￥80.0 × 10.6x, P/B 1.3x; we base our PTs for petrochemical majors on SOTP valuations to reflect the wide range of businesses.P/Es by segment (based on avg.forlisted peers,using Bloomberg Consensus for non-covered companies) are as follows: Agro &Life Solutions 12.Ox,ICT& Mobility Solutions 12.Ox, Essential &Green Materials 7.5x. We alsotake into account the PT for Sumitomo Pharma (4506) Market share gain in electronic materials. OPfalls ~￥2.Obn for each￥1rise vs.US$).FromF3/27onwardswe assume￥150/$.Issues at production plants. The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, Morgan Stanley).For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Website at www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: ResearchManagement), New York, NY, 10036 USA.Forvaluationmethodology and risks associated with anyrecommendation,rating or price target referenced in this research report,please contact the Client Support Teamas follows: US/Canada +1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81(0)3-6836-9000.Alternatively youmay contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Researchat 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Man