FIGR：链上实时贷款数据——即将迎来创纪录的第二季度！

Figure Technology Solutions Mahika Sapra+91 226 842 1408mahika.sapra@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Sanskar Chindalia+91 226 842 1445sanskar.chindalia@bernsteinsg.com Price Target FIGR 67.00 USD Harsh Misra+91 226 842 1457harsh.misra@bernsteinsg.com FIGR: Live loan data onchain - heading for a record Q2! Recently, FIGR reported Q1 earnings with a strong beat on revenue and EBITDA. As themarket gets more efficient in tracking live blockchain volume data, we believe FIGR’s stockprice should become a real-time reflection of blockchain loan volumes. This is unique toblockchain marketplaces and something investors won’t see with balance sheet basedfintech lending platforms. FIGR’s live blockchain data suggests an all-time high record Q2 upcoming. April loan volumeswere reported at $1.34Bn. On-chain May MTD volumes indicate $717Mn and current run-rate would top April volumes. FIGR guided for a $3.8Bn to $4.1Bn for Q2, which now appearsconservative even at the upper range of the guidance - half quarter volumes at ~$2.1Bn. The loan volumes are combination of more partners, larger sized partners and higher ticketsizes from growth in first-liens. Figure reported over 380+ lending partners on the platform(80 added this quarter), with over 56% of loan volumes on the Connect marketplace. Thisincluded larger partners signed up this quarter - Flagstar (a top 35 US bank by assets) and6thlargest mortgage issuer. Further, FIGR reported 20% share of loans being first lien withaverage ticket size ~3x second lien ticket size. Investors have been concerned about the take-rate (Q1 take rate was flat at 3.8%). However,what matters is absolute dollar revenue and margin delivered. 2% on a $300K loan is morethan 4% on a $100K loan. Thus, we expect top line and EBITDA trend from Q1 to continue asvolumes ramp up with investors focusing on the absolute beat. Further, Figure continues to augment its marketplace with collateral-based lending andborrowing - Democratized Prime and Forge. Figure is building a complete marketplacewhere real-world assets (both loans and eventually equities) can form active collateral forborrow/lend liquidity - going more towards a model where FIGR simply clips a small fee ofthe entire blockchain economy within its ecosystem. In Q1’26, Democratized Prime matchedbalances at $368Mn (up ~79% QoQ). EXHIBIT 5:First lien contributed ~20% of total loanvolumes in Q1'26 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate FIGR Outperform PT$67 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Figure Technology Solutions We value FIGR on 25x EV/27E EBITDA, at a premium to traditional exchanges and crypto peers, led by FIGR’s structural growthprospects as pure-play tokenization platform and profitable core lending business. We rate Figure Outperform (PT$67). RISKS Figure Technology Solutions 1. FIGR’s business model involve some macro risks, for example, aggressive interest rate decline makes mortgage refinancingmore competitive, impacting the demand for HELOCs. 2. FIGR’s business model is dependent on continued growth of private credit, any risks emerging leading to a slowdown in privatecredit could impact uptake for tokenized credit on Figure’s marketplace. 3. We expect non-HELOC loans to contribute ~20% of FIGR’s total loan volumes by 2027E, any delay in expansion into new loancategories can affect Figure’s loan growth. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME) for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacific region, versus the Bloomberg Japan Large and Mid Cap Price Return Index USD (JPL) for stocks listed on the Japaneseexchanges, and versus the Bl