社服零售行业周报：泡泡玛特、名创优品Q1收入表现亮眼

评级及分析师信息 泡泡玛特发布2026Q1业务情况，中国市场表现超市场预期：2026Q1，公司整体收益（未经审核）同比增长75%-80%；其中，中国收益同比增长100%-105%（线下渠道同比增长75%-80%，线上渠道同比增长150%-155%），亚太同比增长25%-30%，美洲同比增长55%-60%，欧洲及其他地区同比增长60%-65%。 名创优品发布2026Q1盈利预告，营收表现亮眼：2026Q1，预计集团录得收入约56.78-57.28亿元，同比增长约28%-29%；经营利润约15.11-15.31亿元，同比增长约113%-116%；期内利润约12.28-12.48亿元，同比增长约195%-200%；剔除汇兑损益的经调整经营利润约8.29-8.49亿元，同比增长约13%-16%；剔除汇兑损益的经调整净利润约6.24-6.44亿元，同比增长约7%-10%。 投资建议 建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26年仍然拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4）AI+应用26年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国际、米奥会展等。 分析师：王璐邮箱：wanglu2@hx168.com.cnSAC NO：S1120523040001联系电话： 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞争加剧。 正文目录 1.行情回顾.......................................................................................................................................................................................................32.行业&公司动态...........................................................................................................................................................................................42.1.行业资讯..................................................................................................................................................................................................42.2.行业投融资情况.....................................................................................................................................................................................42.3.重点公司公告.........................................................................................................................................................................................53.宏观&行业数据...........................................................................................................................................................................................53.1.社零...........................................................................................................................................................................................................53.2.黄金珠宝..................................................................................................................................................................................................74.投资建议.......................................................................................................................................................................................................85.风险提示.......................................................................................................................................................................................................8 图表目录 图1本周大盘及社服零售行业涨跌.......................................................................................................................................................3图2本周重点子板块涨跌.........................................................................................................................................................................3图3本周涨幅排名前五的个股................................................................................................................................................................3图4本周跌幅排名前五的个股................................................................................................................................................................3图53月社零总额同比+1.7%....................................................................................................................................................................6图63月除汽车外社零总额同比+3.2%..................................................................................................................................................6图73月城镇/乡村社零总额同比+1.5%/+2.7%..................................................................................................................................6图83月商品零售/餐饮收入同比+1.5%/+2.9%..................................................................................................................................6图93月实物商品线上/线下同比-4.5%/+0.9%..................................................................................................................................6图10 1-3月实物商品网上零售占比24.8%..........................................................................................................................................6图11 3月服装鞋帽针纺织品/化妆品/金银珠宝/体育娱乐用品类商品零售额同比+7.0%/+8.3%/+11.7%/-2.0%..........7图12 2026Q1全国黄金消费量303.29吨/+4.41%..............................................................................................................................7图13 2026Q1首饰用金占黄金消费总量的28%...................................................................................................................................7图14本周沪金价格环比-0.9%......................................................