日本OEM中国新车销量（2026年4月）对汽车零部件行业的影响

Shinji KakiuchiEquity AnalystShinji.Kakiuchi@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5416 Implications for Auto PartsIndustry from J-OEM's ChinaNew Vehicle Sales (Apr 2026) Hayato TakashimaResearch AssociateHayato.Takashima@morganstanleymufg.com+81 3 6836-5414 Auto Parts JapanIndustry View Key Takeaways China new vehicle sales by Japanese OEMs in Apr 2026 were Toyota -25%, Honda-48%, and Nissan -31% YoY. Implications for the auto parts industry are slightlynegative. The downtrend in domestic demand in China remains unchanged. While exportsfrom China are increasing, there is no impact on Japanese companies at this stage. In terms of assumptions in full-year F3/27 guidance, Koito assumes Japanese OEMChina output at -4% YoY, while Toyota Boshoku assumes China seat productionat -8%. For auto parts companies, ongoing efforts to curb fixed costs and advancerationalization in China operations remain important in the near term. Structurally, there is no change in our view that responding to price competitionwith local Chinese parts suppliers and improving development speed remain thechallenges. As of May 13, the three major Japanese OEMs have released Apr 2026 China newvehicle sales. Toyota sold 107k units (-25.4% YoY), Honda 23k (-48.3%), and Nissan32k (-30.8%). On a Jan–Apr cumulative basis, Toyota sold 477k units (-10.0%),Honda 144k (-28.0%), and Nissan 162k (-3.3%). Exhibit 2:New vehicle sales YoY byJapanese 3 OEMs in China (monthly) Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Disclosure Section The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared by Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates (collectively, "Morgan Stanley").For important disclosures, stock price charts and equity rating histories regarding companies that are the subject of this report, please see the Morgan Stanley Research Disclosure Websiteat www.morganstanley.com/eqr/disclosures/webapp/generalresearch, or contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: ResearchManagement), New York, NY, 10036 USA. For valuation methodology and risks associated with any recommendation, rating or price target referenced in this research report, please contact the Client Support Team as follows: US/Canada+1 800 303-2495; Hong Kong +852 2848-5999; Latin America +1 718 754-5444 (U.S.); London +44 (0)20-7425-8169; Singapore +65 6834-6860; Sydney +61 (0)2-9770-1505; Tokyo +81(0)3-6836-9000. Alternatively you may contact your investment representative or Morgan Stanley Research at 1585 Broadway, (Attention: Research Management), New York, NY 10036 USA.Analyst Certification The following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have not received and will notreceive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Shinji Kakiuchi. Global Research Conflict Management Policy Morgan Stanley Research has been published in accordance with our conflict management policy, which is available at www.morganstanley.com/institutional/research/conflictpolicies. APortuguese version of the policy can be found at www.morganstanley.com.br Important Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies As of April 30, 2026, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research: GS YuasaCorporation, Musashi Seimitsu Industry, Nifco, NOK, Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Boshoku, Unipres. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering (or 144A offering) of securities of Denso, Toyoda Gosei. Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley has received compensation for investment banking services from Aisin, Denso, Nifco, Stanley Electric, Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Industries, TS Tech.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aisin, Denso, EXEDY, F.C.C., GS Yuasa Corporation, Koito Mfg.,Musashi Seimitsu Industry, NHK Spring, Nifco, NOK, Stanley Electric, TOKAI RIKA, Toyoda Gosei, Toyota Boshoku, Toyota Industries,