2026年葡萄牙能源政策评估报告

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCY The IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issuesincluding oil, gas andcoal supply anddemand, renewableenergy technologies,electricity markets,energy efficiency,access to energy,demand sidemanagement andmuch more. Throughits work, the IEAadvocates policiesthat will enhance thereliability, affordabilityand sustainability ofenergy in its32Member countries,13Associationcountries andbeyond. IEAMembercountries: IEAAccessioncountries: BrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaIsraelRomania AustraliaAustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugalSlovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IEA Associationcountries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineViet Nam This publication,as well asany dataand map includedherein,are without prejudiceto the status of orsovereignty over anyterritory, to the delimitationof international frontiers andboundaries and to the nameof any territory, city or area. The EuropeanCommission alsoparticipates in thework of the IEA Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Table of contents Executive summary............................................................................................4Energy policy landscape .................................................................................10Climate and energy strategy ...........................................................................12Electricity.........................................................................................................20End-use sectors ..............................................................................................29Recommendations ..........................................................................................47Focus area: Energy security in the mid-transition........................................54Integrated energy system planning.................................................................57Appropriate remuneration ...............................................................................59Proactive grid planning ...................................................................................60Electricity flexibility and market reform ...........................................................71Resource adequacy and potential capacity remuneration mechanisms ........75Managing declining natural gas demand ........................................................77Recommendations ..........................................................................................83Annexes.............................................................................................................89 Executive summary Thanks to steady expansion of hydropower, wind power generation and solarphotovoltaics (PV) in recent years, Portugal has one of the lowest carbonintensities of electricity generation among IEA Member countries.Portugal isentering a mid-transition that requires managing two interconnected energy systemsthat are moving in opposite directions: one is based on renewables and electrificationand must scale up rapidly; the other is a legacy fossil fuel system that must decline inan orderly way to avoid stranded assets and price shocks. Electricity is becoming thecentral pillar of energy security and the main driver of emissions reductions. Portugalhas established an ambitious direction for its energy transitionthrough a series of strategic policy documents centred on the National Energyand Climate Plan (NECP).The NECP sets ambitious 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions reduction targets that aim to put the country on a pathway to climateneutrality by 2045. It also outlines measures to increase the deployment of renewableelectricity and deliver broad end-use electrification. Portugal needs to translate itsstrategic objectives into co-ordinated delivery across all sectors. Although the NECPsets clear ambitions, the pathways for achieving these goals remain dispersed acrossseparate strategies, regulatory reforms and funding programmes, which make itdifficult to align investment planning, infrastructure development, workforce needsandconsumer incentives.A national roadmap based on bottom-up sectoralagreements would integrate these efforts, increase transparency, and provide clarityand direction for public authorities, industry and consumers. Maintaining social acceptance of the energy transition requires ensuring thatthe benefits of clean, efficient and affordable energy reach all people.Inparticular, low-income households, which are more exposed to high energy costs,inefficient housing and limited access to affordable, low-carbon mobility options, should be empowered to participate in the energy transition. This is especiallyimportant in Portugal, where energy poverty remains well above the Europeanav