Lyft：与首席执行官和首席财务官的路演纪要

+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.comNathanGee +1 917 344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com Market-PerformPrice Target +1 917 344 8467ajeya.patil@bernsteinsg.com ?LYFT LYFT: Notes from the road with the CEO and CFO expected,muchofthe conversation centered onAVsandLYFT'srole,value-add, andpricingpowerinthemarketas thetechnologyproliferates.Managementstressedthebenefitsofahybridnetwork, whilenoting its strategy istobuild deeperrelationshipswitha narrowersubsetofpartners (strikesusas differenttoUBER'sapproach,whichisbroader).Wealsodiscussedthe health of the business and the opportunity LYFT sees fortop-line growth. Building for a hybrid AV future. LYFT strongly believes a hybrid rideshare world makesthe most sense. For one, it will take time for AVs to scale between technical and regulatoryhurdles, OEM relationships,and physical infrastructure build outs.The expectation is that AVscouldaccountfor~10%of volume by~2030 (from our vantagepoint,this is one ofthemajorpoints of debate with the market pricing in a steeper ramp over the next 3-5 years). A hybridmarketplace also solves thepeak/trough demand challengethat AV-only networks willface.Investors are clearly concerned about UBER/LYFT pricing powerandtake ratedynamicsin an AV future, but management believes that this is hedged by the majority of rides beinghuman-driven for longer and the value it brings as a partner. To the partnership point, LYFTcontinues to engage with allmajor AV players. The organic growth question.We have been focused on the deceleration in North AmericaRidesgrowthtoMSDY/Yin1Q26,thoughmanagementdoesn'tseethis asalonger-termissue.Rides can bounce around quarter-to-quarter and strength in markets like SF and NYhighlight the opportunity stll ahead of LYFT. Over time, management expects tailwinds fromfaster growing segments to shine through -higher-end modes, B2B,international markets,suburban regions/smaller cities, and newer product like Lyft Silver and Lyft Teen. Investmentframework.Insurance leveragehas shown up on California reform and ride mix,which funds reinvestment. Itdoes not anticipatea step-change in AV CapEx. InvestmentImplications Buildingfora hybridAvfuture.Management stressedthebenefits of a hybridnetwork,given thepeak and troughnature of rideshare demand.Fundamentally,AV owners willneed areturnonthese carsandLYFTbelievesit canbeoneofthebestplacestomonetizefleets between its scaleduserbaseand fleetmanagementknow-how (fromrunning Flexdrive).LYFT sees AVsapproaching~10%ofvolumeby~2030given technicaland regulatoryhurdles,0EM relationships,andphysical infrastructurebuild outs requiredtoscalethe service.Even withAVs ramping,humandrivers remain criticalto supportingthemarketplaceforyears to come.This gives LYFT comfort around pricing dynamics (and marketplace unit economics)-AVs will be one productamongst a broader array of offerings.Furthermore, the companysees AVs asbeing TAM expansive, encouraged by trends it hasobserved in existing markets like San Francisco.The pricing question is nowone of the top debates in the space as it relates toUBER/LYFT,with themarketclearlyconcernedaboutthe implicationsforprevailingmarginsasAVcosts come down. management's point of view,take rate compression would mean LYFT's value-add diminishes-but demand generation,operations & support,and network management are all critical functions to offering a highquality service.Flexdrive is anadditional offering -fleet operations are needed to scale AVs. Recall, with Waymo in Nashville, LYFT gets compensated forbothdemandgenerationanduptime on vehicles.While managementacknowledgedthata winner-take-allAVmarket wouldbe challenging,it does not expect thatto be the case,with multiple players progressing on self-driving technology.It doesn'tsound like LYFT expects there tobe a long tail of providers, but rathera handful thatit is keen to work with.OEMs don't want tobecaptivetosinglesuppliers either, whichcreatesappetiteformoretechnologypartners. softwareproviders toOEMs)to help jumpstartthefragmentation thesis.LYFThas notstruck as manydeals,andmanagementframed its approach as going deeper witha narrower set ofproviders.Tobe clear though,thecompanyhas relationships/dialogues with all the major AV players, so we wouldn't rule out more deals. We think that LYFT's position as the #2 makes thisthemore realistic pathforwardforthe company,whichcouldbe abeneficiaryof UBERdrivingfragmentation/bolsteringR&Dacrossthespace.AVprovidersareunlikelytostrikeexclusiverelationshipsfortoolong.Thecounterpointofcourseisthatina capacity-constrained sector,being secondmeans that itcouldtaketime togetaccessto these fleets.It remains an openquestion the extentto which we see multiple partners deploy in a single market (one AV provider and two rideshare partners orvice versa). Building on its Nashville arrangement with Waymo, LYFT thinks direct (1P) and indirect (3P) channels can coexist,akin to the hotel or airline industry, with fleets being fixed cost expenses that need