西门子能源：持续强劲至2030年11月

Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com European Capital Goods Siemens Energy AG Om Kela+44 20 7550 2192om.kela@bernsteinsg.com Rating Nicholas Witting+44 20 7762 1411nicholas.witting@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales 210.00 EUR(150.00OLD) ENR.GR James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Siemens Energy: Strong till November (2030) We reiterate the Outperform rating on Siemens Energy (ENR) and increase our target price to€210. The Q2 update and FY guidance increase underlines that ENR remains well-placed tocapitalise on AI-tailwinds and a resurgence in gas turbine and T&D investment. Growth looksset to accelerate further in H2 as capacity comes online in both divisions, bringing the prospectof further earnings beats. Investors can now also look forward to new mid-term targets in Close Date12 May 2026ENR.GR Close Price (EUR)171.80Price Target (EUR)210.00Upside/(Downside)22%52-Week Range195.54/72.26EDME1,514.65FYESepDiv Yield0.4%Market Cap (EUR) (M)152,571EV (EUR) (M)144,873 Gas Services’ orders underpin a ‘Segment of 40’ through FY27-30.We model 21% LFLsales growth in H2’26, and 21% compound LFL growth over FY26-28, driven by our workmapping ENR’s capacity expansion for medium frames, deliverable in H2, and large framesfrom FY27 (Exhibit 2). We also expect stronger pricing flowing through orders to sales, withFY27 and FY28 €m/GW up 10% and 15% yoy, respectively. Our confidence in GS new unitmargins reaching 18.5% by FY28 is underpinned by the pricing already embedded within the New mid-term targets in November keep the narrative constructive.Given the strengthof earnings momentum, ENR management confirmed it would refresh its mid-term targetsagain in November, this time out to 2030. Provisionally our updated forecasts point to mid-teens FY27-30 comparable growth, and group margins progressing to 20%. Unsurprisingly,the core to this upside remains Gas Services and Grid Technologies, for the latter of which weare +130bps ahead of cons FY28 margins. ENR continues to leverage stellar order growth Investment Implications (continued on page 2) DETAILS Investment Implications Valuation appears lofty for good reason.With Siemens Energy you may pay c.41x P/E, but in return you receive a sector-leading 35% FY26-29 EPS CAGR. This implies a PEG of only 1.2x on higher than average earnings visibility. We see earningsupgrades still to come with H2 execution, FY27 guidance and 2030 mid-term targets potential catalysts. We reiterate ourOutperform rating on Siemens Energy, raising our price target to €210 on our upgraded outlook for the GS and GT P&L. Our CHANGES TO ESTIMATES We reduce our WACC to 8.0% (-50bps vs old) on account of a lower beta to reflect above average visibility over SiemensEnergy’s earnings trajectory and ongoing strong execution. We also upgrade terminal EBIT margins to 15% (+150bps vs old) toreflect the step-change in profitability for core Gas Services (GS) and Grid Technologies (GT) franchises. EXHIBIT 3:Siemens Energy can nearly double FY24run-rate capacity by FY30 purely through brownfieldcapacity expansions. EXHIBIT 4:We expect ENR to book more orders than their 35-40 GW guide for FY26. EXHIBIT 5:We model deliveries of 21 GW p.a. on average through FY30, doubling from c.14 GW in 2026 to 28 GW by2030. VALUATION EXHIBIT 6:GE Vernova is trading at a 40% premium to Siemens Energy. EARNINGS WASHUP KEY POINTS FROM THE CONFERENCE CALL 1.Gas Services demand and pricing durable.Mgmt flagged Q3 Gas Services order momentum still looks strong, althoughQ4 may be lower. Total Gas Services commitments now stand at 87 GW, with FY-end commitments expected at 90-100GW. Current split is roughly 70% / 60GW firm orders and 30% / 27GW reservations. New unit and service agreementsbooked in Q2 carried margins significantly above current backlog margins, with Q3 pricing still supportive. ENR are already 2.Grid Technologies margin upgrade driven by volume and pricing.Mgmt flagged the FY26 Grid margin upgrade to18%-20% (old 16-18%) was driven by capacity additions, lifting productivity, and better backlog margins. Mgmt expects anotable H2 margin step-up, driven by higher revenues, higher-margin products, and better project execution. New capacitycoming online in Austria, Italy, Saudi Arabia, and China should support H2 revenue acceleration. Transformer and switchgear 3.Data center demand is broadening across both Gas Services and Grid Technologies.Data centers were a majorcontributor to U.S. demand in Gas Services, but also as an accelerating driver for Grid Technologies through gridconnections and transformers. In Gas Services, Q2 included 5 GW of data center-related orders. Management said datacenters are around 25%-30% of Gas Services activity, but emphasized active balancing across applications, regions, andcustomer types. In Grid Technologies, Siemens Energy booked nearly €2bn of data center-related orders in H1 FY26. Data EXHIBIT 8:Large and medium power