在被迫流离失所的环境中，社会援助是否惠及最弱势群体？来自中非共和国的证据

Does Social Assistance Reach the Most Vulnerablein Settings with Forced Displacement? Evidence from the Central African Republic Jonathan LainJohannes Hoogeveen Fiscal Policy and Growth Global DepartmentMay 2026 Policy Research Working Paper11378 Abstract Poverty reduction rarely progresses in countries affected byconflict and forced displacement. Mechanisms to targetsocial assistance to reach the poorest households in suchsettings are therefore badly needed. This paper explores pat-terns of social assistance targeting using unique householdsurvey data covering people inside and outside displacedperson camps in the Central African Republic. The find-ings show that assistance is categorically targeted and notdirected to those most in need. Internally displaced per-sons in camps are significantly more likely to receive socialassistance than people living outside camps—includingout-of-camp internally displaced persons—regardless oftheir level of monetary consumption. Meanwhile, peoplewith lower monetary consumption are no likelier to receivesocial assistance than those with higher consumption levels. As a result, internally displaced persons in camps who arein the top consumption quintile are more than twice aslikely to receive social assistance as those outside campsin the bottom consumption quintile. This means thatsome extremely vulnerable households are excluded fromassistance. Moreover, these patterns could create perverseincentives to enter and remain in camps, especially as itemerges that those who have been in camps longer aremore likely to receive social assistance. Simulations revealthat targeting social assistance based on monetary welfarecould protect the most vulnerable better by reducing thedepth and severity of poverty. The results underline the needto find practicable mechanisms to reach the poorest peoplein conflict-affected settings, both inside and outside camps. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Does Social Assistance Reach the Most Vulnerable inSettings with Forced Displacement? Evidence from theCentral African Republic Jonathan Lain* and Johannes Hoogeveen* Keywords: Displacement, Targeting, Conflict, Central African Republic. *Both authors are with the World Bank and can be reached through jlain@worldbank.org andjhoogeveen@worldbank.org. The authors are grateful to Sophie Grumelard and Mona Niebuhr for theirinsightful comments. 1. Introduction Global poverty reduction is stalling, and rising conflict appears to be part of the reason why. The share ofpeople living in extreme poverty – on less than 3.00 USD in 2021 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms perperson per day – dropped by around three-quarters from 43.6 percent in 1990 to 10.7 percent in 2019, but ithas since flatlined (Foster, Jolliffe, Lara Ibarra, Lakner, & Tetteh Baah, 2025). This has coincided with thecompounding effects of the COVID-19 crisis and accelerating inflation, as well as rising conflict (World Bank,2024). The number of conflict events recorded by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) projectdoubled between 2020 and 2025. At the same time, global poverty has become increasingly concentrated inconflict-affected settings (Corral, Irwin, Krishnan, Mahler, & Vishwanath, 2020; Nguyen, 2025). With conflict often comes forced displacement, so understanding how best to reach the most vulnerable inconflict-affected, high-displacement settings is of growing policy importance. Given proliferating conflict,approximately 123.2 million people are forcibly displaced by conflict and violence worldwide, up from 65.0million in 2015 (UNHCR, 2024a). This includes 36.9 million refugees, who have been displaced acrossinternational borders and some 72.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have been forced to moveby conflict but have remained within the same country. Conflict-affected countries often have limited resources, so finding appropriate targeting mechanisms toreach those most in need is especially crucial in such settings. Global evidence reveals that revenuemobilization typically drops during periods of conflict, leaving governments fiscally constrained (Gupta, 2004).Moreover, Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) and humanitarian support provided by governments andnon-governmental organizations (NGOs) in other countries are shrinking and becoming less r