阿里巴巴Q4：推动AI利润增长

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd Rating charles.gou@bernsteinsg.comMin-Joo Kang OutperformPrice Target minjoo.kang@bernsteinsg.comHyrum Caesar ? BABA ? 9988.HK hyrum.caesar@bernsteinsg.com ho-hum, but the print will be remembered for the company's disclosure of RMB9.Obn in Alrevenue(3O%ofexternalAlicloudrevenue),overRMB8bningroup-wideMaaSrevenue(90-95% inAlicloud).The former wasguidedto over50% of Alicloud revenue in a year,whilethelatter was guided to jumptoRMB3Obn bythe endof thefinancial year.AccordinglyAlicloud margins were guided to rise in the coming quarters, reflecting a combination ofAlicloud price hikes and revenue mix towards higher margin revenues. reflectedacombinationof"AlcapexbadsentimentwhichbledoverfromUSpeersafterQ4reporting,and concernsthat soaring All Other segment losses meantAlibaba's Al endeavourswere a negative sum outcome. The latter will need to continue to be watched, but there'ssomething to be said about the cl ombination of accelerating top-line and margin expansionin the coming quarters.The company's plan to effectively seed neocloud partners by sellingT-head chips externally is both a smart way to offload capital intensity... and feed the investorthirst fora spin-off IPO catalyst (well if it worked for Baidu...).The e-commerce businessremains anaemic -not that that should be a surprise to anyone at this point. printwas well alignedwith pre-close communications.Customermanagementrevenuegrew 1.2%year on year, compared with 8% underlying growth excluding c.RMB4.9bn ofmarketing expenses moved to contra revenue. Flattish core e-commerce EBITA (c.RMB42)excludingQuickCommercelossesimpliedaboutRMB18bnofthelatter.Alicloudrevenuegrew38.2%yearonyeartoRMB41.6bn.AlicloudEBITAgrew56.9%toRMB3.8bn-yearonyear comparisons implied 12.0% incremental EBITAmargin,or c.30.8% incremental EBITDAmargin if we assign the year on year increase in group-level depreciation costs entirely toAlicloud. Alibaba'sQ4resultwasho-hum,butthequarterwillberememberedforAlicloud'sjamtodaypivot,morethansmall investments and losses inthe All Othersegment-but not necessarily worse than already communicated by the company.1.2%CMRgrowthtoRMB73.ObncamebetweenourRMB72.0bnestimateandconsensusonRMB74.3bn.China E-commerceGroupsaw revenue reach RMB122bn, 6.0% higher year on year, while RMB24.0bn of segment EBITA was in-line with our estimate,but slightly lower than the street modelling RMB25.7bn.China E-commerce GroupEBITAexcluding food delivery losses wassaidto have been flattish year on year, implying c.RMB18bn ofQuick CommerceEBITAlosses this quarter. RMB3.8bn of Alicloud EBITA this quarter was meanwhile in-line with our estimate and consensus, and implied a 9.1% EBITAmargin. The latter was 110bps higher year on year.RMB26.6bn of capex this quarter was lower than the RMB30bn-or-so aquarter run-rate we'd modelled. Q4FY26REPORTINGINCHARTS Exhibit 4 to Exhibit 11 summarise the key quarterly data points we track for the company. FY3/26, down 84% year on yearFY3/23-FY3/26:Alibabaadjusted EBITA year in Q4FY3/26 to RMB243.4bnFY3/23-FY3/26:Alibaba revenue RMB35.4bn revenuegrew1.2%yearonyeartoRMB73.0bn Source: Corporate reports and Bernstein analysis. RMB41.6bn inthequarterFY3/23-FY3/26:AlibabaCloudgrossrevenue implying a 12% incremental margin Q4FY3/26 WerateAlibabaOutperform(PTUS$180/HK176), BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE References to"Bernstein" or the"Firm" in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC (April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024onwards),SanfordC.Bernstein(HongKong)Limited盛博香港有限公司，SanfordC.Bernstein(Canada)Limited,SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Africa Technologies &Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement inplace between Bernsteinand Societe Generale.Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Societe Generale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically noted otherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein's"affiliates" relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. commerceand Cloudbusinesses. The maindownside risks associatedwithourpricetargetfor Alibabainclude macroeconomicrisks (e.g.credit,retail consumption), RATINGSDEFINITIONS,BENCHMARKSANDDISTRIBUTION EQUITYRATINGSDEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocksbased on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12months versus the S&P 500forstocks listed on the U.S.and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (EDME)for stocks listed on the European exchanges and emerging markets exchanges outside of the AsiaPacificregion,versustheBloombergJapanLargeandMidCapPriceReturnIndexUsD(JPL)forstockslistedontheJapanese(ex-Japan) exchanges -unless otherwise specif