2026年数字经济预测

Six Predictions for2026from AI to Gaming Executive Summary|Six Predictions for2026 Prediction#3 Prediction#1 Prediction#2 Vertical video will spur app growth—led byShort Drama Generative AI appswill earn morethan$10Billion in2026 Gen AIwill rival paid advertising fordrivingwebsite traffic Executive Summary|Six Predictions for2026 Prediction#6 Prediction#5 Prediction#4 Digital advertiserswill shift ad dollarsto image creatives over videos Winning mobile games in2026willpair ad-friendly hooks with deepmonetization Shorter,smarter development cyclesare returning forvideo games Sensor Tower|Our Customers Top publishers trustSensor Tower insights to grow their business Prediction#1:Generative AI apps will earnmore than$10Billion in2026 Top App Genres Projected for2026 Consumers Will SpendMore than$10Billion inGenerative AI Apps in2026 Worldwide,iOS and Google Play(2023-2026Forecast) Generative AI was the most discussed topic across thedigital landscape in2025,spanning mobile,web,andadvertising.The genre has earned the buzz:GenerativeAI apps like ChatGPT and Google Gemini are projectedto approach4billion downloads,$4.8billion in in-apppurchase(IAP)revenue,and43billion hours spent in2025. Our2026prediction:We project this rapid growth tocontinue,with both IAP revenue and time spentexpected to more than double year-over-year(YoY),setting the stage for a$10B+market. Dive into the latest mobile apps trends withSensor Tower'sMobile App Insights Source:Sensor TowerNote:iOS and Google Play combined.iOS only for China.Estimates for2025are projectedthrough the rest of the calendar year.2026estimates are forecasted.Apps classifiedusing Sensor Tower's App IQ taxonomy as of December2025. Yearly App Genre Ranks by Metric By2026,Generative AIwill Be a Top Five GenreAcross Key Metrics Worldwide,iOS and Google Play(2023-2026Forecast) As a result of the unprecedented growth,Generative AIhas immediately ranked among the top genres onmobile.By2026,the genre is projected to see dramaticleaps across all key metrics: Genre Rank byDownloads:#4in2026ahead of top genres likeShopping and Movies&TV Shows Downloads:Expected to move from#10in2025to#4in2026,ranking ahead of established categorieslike Multimedia&Design Software and Shopping. IAP Revenue:Projected to jump to#3,surpassingpopular genres such as Dating&Social Discovery. Time Spent:Expected to climb to#5,outrankingmajor consumer categories including Travel&Tourism,Shopping,and Financial Services. Generative AI is quickly cementing itself as apowerhouse,positioning itself among the top fivegenres on mobile by2026. Bonus Prediction:ChatGPT Will Become theTop App by IAP Revenueby the End of2026 The most significant contributor to Generative AI'sascent is ChatGPT,which continues to seeunprecedented IAP revenue growth.By Q32025,ChatGPT was already the#2app globally by IAPrevenue across iOS and Google Play,trailing onlyTikTok. Bold Prediction:Will ChatGPT maintain its trajectoryto surpass the incumbent video giant and become the#1grossing app?While the rapidly evolving GenerativeAI landscape—with new apps and competitorintegrations launching constantly—makes thisprediction far from a certainty,the current momentumreveals that it is possible. Prediction#2:Vertical video will spur appgrowth—led by Short Drama Vertical Video will SpurApp Growth—Led byShort Drama Outside of Generative AI,Short Drama has been thebreakout app category of the past few years.Thisvertical-video format,popularized by TikTok,hasemerged as a popular streaming option with quick,compelling micro-dramas. Our2026prediction:Given Short Drama's risingpopularity in massive mobile markets like India,Indonesia,and Brazil,we project the subgenre'sgrowth to challenge traditional OTT Streaming in2026: Downloads:Short Drama is projected to surpassOTT Streaming globally. IAP Revenue:Short Drama will narrow the gap.(Note:OTT Streaming services often use paymentmethods outside the app stores,which are notincluded here.) Time Spent:OTT Streaming will continue to hold alarge edge,though the gap will narrow. Meta's Apps Drive Uptickin Short Video TimeSpent on Social Android Phones in the United States Beyond the rise of Short Drama,short video usage isincreasing significantly within Social apps.While keyplayers like TikTok are projected to end2025with ashort video's share of time spent declining,Meta’s topSocial apps have more than compensated.Thisgrowth is fueled by Reels,which now accounts for asubstantial portion of engagement(45%for Instagramand29%for Facebook).Overall,short video accountedfor32%of time spent across these seven key socialapps—a three percentage point increase YoY. Furthermore,short video is expanding beyond socialwalls,with apps likeESPNand theNYTimesrecentlyintegrating vertical video options,signaling apervasive format shift across the digital landscape. Prediction#3:Gen AI will rival paid advertisingfor driving website traffic Web Traffic from Paid vs.Gen AI