基础材料 - 中国：铜受供应紧张支撑；钢受铁矿石价格强劲提振 行业概览
steel lifted by strong iron ore pricesIndustryOverview Copper prices supported by delayed Grasberg full restart ChinaBasic Materials the Grasberg's full restart. China spot copper prices also increased by 1.3% WoW to RMB103,010/t.Meanwhile,CRCtoarecordlowof-USD86.53/t, supply. China copper socialinventorieshaibondedwarehouseandsocialinventoriesfelligdongbondedwarehouseinventoriesdroppedshabroadlyflat.3,542/t, while the Changjiangspotpriceedgeddown0.7%WowithsmeltingmarginsnarrowingtoRMB7,962/t.GoldWoWto RMB194,000/t,whileU,0gWoWtoUSD86/lb.Shanghai cobalt spotprices edgedup0.7%WoW toRMB426.000/tNdPr oxide prices fell 1.4% WoW to RMB762,600/t, and tungsten prices declined4.2%WoW to RMB 678000/t.Steel: Rising iron ore prices drive steel prices higher matty.zhao@bofa.comEdward Leung, CFA>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235083282edward.leung@bofa.comMiriam Chan, CFA >>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) +85235087478YibingXia>>Research AnalystMerill Lynch (Hong Kong) RMB3,518/t, respectively,alongside a 3.5% WoW increase in iron ore prices to USD 111.65/t. Finished-steel inventories edged down marginally by 0.1% WoW, whileapparent steel consumption slowed,falling 7.5%WoW to 8.4mnt.Steel margins remainedweak and volatile,with rebar and HRC margins at-RMB281/t and-RMB184/t,respectivelyCement/Glass/Paper: Weak performance +852 3508 8045yibing.xia@bofa.comYimingWang>>Research Analyst Merill Lynch (Hong Kong)+85235085037yiming.wang@bofa.comPeter Wang >>Research Analyst Cement:The average national cement price decreasedby1.3%WoW to RMB314/t as ofApr 30th.The nationwide shipment ratio inched up by 0.2ppts WoW to 41.5%, and the inventory ratio edged down by 0.4% to 63.9%. By late April, market demand weakeneddue to rainy weather in some regions, and prices retreated to pre-hike levels. Althoughcertain areas still showed intentions to push prices higher, near-term demand remainedsoft and market confidence was insufficient. Glass: National average float glass price(incl. VAT) decreased by 1.0% WoW to RMB1,151/t amid destocking pressure intensified.Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM continued to narrow by 1.8ppts to 12.2%.Paper: Paper prices edged up by 0.6% WoW to RMB3,639/t as of May 6 amid narrowing Merill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 7185peter.wang2@bofa.com supply-demand gap. Solar glass: Spot 3.2mm coated solar glass mid-point pricesremained flat WoW as 15.25/sqm while 2.Omm coated solar glass mid-point prices downRMB 0.25/sqm to RMB9.00/sqm.Our calculation shows Flat Glass GPM (2.0mm)andXinyi Solar GPM (2.0mm) down 0.4%/12.2% WoW. Solar glass daily capacity remainedflat WoW as 86,800t/day and inventory days expanded 2.6% WoW to 49.33 during theweek-ended on May 8,2026. Key chartsExhibit 1: Copper and aluminum spot prices LME copper price +3.2% WoW to USS13,331/t and LME aluminum price was-1.2% WoW at USD 3,542/t as of May 8 As of May 8, Shanghai bonded warehouse inventory/Shanghai socialinventory was -5.1% /-3.3% WoW; Guangdong bonded warehouse 120,000 inventory/Guangdong social inventory was -29.6% / flattish WoW400,000 Avg. national aluminum margin fell by RMB 298/t WoW to RMB7,962/t as of Domestic monthly treatment charges on copper concentrate: -US86.53/t as May 8 of Apr 30 Exhibit 5: COMEX gold spot priceCOMEX gold (spot) price increased by 2.4% WoW to USS4,724/oz as of May 8 Exhibit 6: Spot cash margins at steel millsBy May 8, spot rebar cash margins fell by RMB 27/t to -RMB 281/t, while spot HRC cash margins increased by RMB 28/t to -RMB 184/t Source: Wind, BofA Global Research Nine Dragons margin tracker is now indicating NP/t of RMB132/t for this week ASP of QHD 5,500kcal spot price rose by 2.0% WoW to RMB811/t as of May6 1,800 The nationwide shipment ratio inched up by 0.2ppts WoW to 41.5% as of Current lithium carbonate refining margin based on spodumene has Apr 30 improved but still stayed negative amid increasing spodumene price Source: Digital cement, BofA Global Research Exhibit 11: China Solar Glass Price vs GPM (%)Spot 3.2mm coated solar glass mid-point prices remained flat WoW as Exhibit 10: National Float Glass Price and Xinyi Float Glass GPMAs of Apr 30th, the national average float glass price decreased by 1.0% WoW 15.25/sqm while 2.0mm coated solar glass mid-point prices down RMB0.25/sqmtoRMB9.00/sqm to RMB1,151/t. Our analysis shows Xinyi float glass GPM continued tonarrow by 1.8ppts to 12.2% Copper prices supported by delayedGrasberg full restartLME copper rose 3.2% WoW to USD 13,331/t, driven by Freeport's decision to push back theGrasberg'sfullrestart.Chinaspotcopperpricesalsoincreasedby1.3%WoWtoRMB103,010/t.Meanwhile, spot TC/RC slid further to a record low of -USD 86.53/t,highlighting persistent tightness in copperconcentrate supply. China copper socialinventories continued to decline.As of May 8, Shanghai bonded warehouse and socialinventories fell 5.1%and3.3% WoW, respectively,while Guangdong bonded warehouseinventories dropp
