亚太油气：基于更高原油假设上调目标价

APAC Oil and Gas: Raising target prices on higher crudeassumptions Surprisingly, APAC oil equities have not materially outperformed despite the sharprise in oil prices. Brent surged from US$60–70/bbl pre-conflict to the mid-US$110s/bblpeak before easing to around $100/bbl currently. APAC oil and gas equities are up ~22%YTD versus a 61% gain in spot oil price, and just slightly ahead of the MSCI Asia Index at~20%. Within the region Woodside and PetroChina have been the stronger performers,although most stocks have rallied 20-30%. The one exception has been Sinopec which hasUnderperformed the benchmark MSCI, weighed down by its downstream-heavy earningsmix. Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com 2Q26 is set to see significantly stronger earnings on the back of the sharp rise inoil prices, with Brent increasing from US$81/bbl in 1Q to ~US$105/bbl in 2Q. Upstream producers are expected to see a strong earnings rebound driven by higherrealizations, while downstream segments are likely to remain under pressure, particularly inchemicals where oversupply persists and margins remain weak. Refining margins may alsonormalize as inventory gains unwind. Despite the volatility in price, companies have so faryet to alter initial guidance, maintaining production and capex plans and reinforcing capitaldiscipline despite stronger prices. We update our models to reflect a higher energy price deck, raising our Brentassumptions to US$90/bbl for 2026 (from $80/bbl) and US$78/bbl for 2027 ($70/bbl), alongside a higher long-term price of US$75/bbl ($70/bbl).The upgrade isdriven by ongoing supply disruptions and clear inventory drawdowns across both crude andproducts. In our base case, we assume a reopening over the near term, with flows graduallynormalizing into 3Q. In gas, we also lift our long-term JKM LNG price assumption to US$12/mmbtu (from US$9/mmbtu), driven by delays to Qatar’s LNG supply expansion andstronger oil-linked contract pricing. Our revised prices are above both the current forwardcurve and consensus. At our new price deck ($90 in 2026), most companies in our coverage will generatelow double-digit FCF and high single-digit dividend yields this year.Santos,PetroChina and CNOOC stand out with FCF yields of around 12%, among the highest in the region. Among Chinese majors, we continue to prefer PetroChina and CNOOC, whileremaining least constructive on Sinopec given ongoing downstream challenges and aweaker outlook. For Inpex, valuations appear stretched with the stock trading above 5x P/CF, suggesting potential for a pullback, while PTTEP screens optically cheap but remainsconstrained by relatively low free cash flow generation amid elevated capex.Reflectingour latest updates, we maintain Outperform on Santos, PetroChina and CNOOC,Market-Perform on Woodside, PTTEP and Inpex, and Underperform on Sinopec. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Despite the unprecedented conflict in the Middle East and disruption supply, oil equities have only marginally outperformed thebroader MSCI APAC index year to date. This partly reflects the stronger performance of the broader market, but it also reflectsa view that the Middle East conflict will be short-lived. We have no unique insight into when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen,but the alternatives for the world economy if this did not happen would be devastating which makes us believe that some formof agreement will be worked. Some will argue that this is wishful thinking, but with the current stalemate, it seems in no one'sinterest for this to perpetuate. Nevertheless, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, physical oil markets will remain disrupted for the months to come givendamage to the Middle East infrastructure plus the logistical challenges of getting tankers back to the Arab Gulf and then backto Asia again with new supply. As such, we now expect oil price to average US$90/bbl this year, which implies Brent will trade inthe range of US$80-100/bbl for the rest of the year. Longer term, the big debate is whether events in the Middle East will be bullish or bearish for oil price. Bulls will argue that theconflict is positive, given the probability that disruption can and will happen again as long as Iran harbors ambitions to obtainnuclear power. Bears on the other hand, will point to the accelerated demand destruction which will come from this event and afracturing of OPEC which could lead to a surge in new supply from the UAE. In our view, the best indicator of long term oil priceis and always has been marginal cost, and we adjust our long term oil price from US$70 to US$75/bbl to reflect our view ofmarginal cost adjusted for inflation and potentially a higher call on barrels from outside the Middle East. For Henry Hub, there is no change to our price deck of US$5/mmbtu and for LNG we expect spot price to reach US$15/mmbtuthis year before subsiding to the US$12/mmbtu longe