人工智能：数据中心连接之战内幕

FromPCB to copper to optical links,connectivity is thebackboneofAIperformance. Connectivityisthenewbottleneckandbattleground.AIdatacentersareshiftingfromcompute-boundtoconnectivity-boundarchitectures,elevatingthestrategicimportanceofelectricalandopticalinterconnectsacrossbothscale-upandscale-outnetworks. AIconnectivityliftsboard,substrate,andmaterialscontent.Higherspeedsanddensitiesaredrivingstructuralgrowthinmulti-layerprintedcircuitboard,HDI,andABFsubstrates,whiletightsupplyofcriticalmaterialsreinforcesnear-termearningsmomentumdespitecompetitivepressuresbeyond2026. CPO’spromiseisclearandwillstartfromscale-out.Co-packagedoptics(CPO)deliversuperiorpowerefficiencyandsignalintegrity,yetfacecost,yield,andserviceabilityhurdles.Weseescale-outdeploymentsfrom2H26,withcopperremainingdominantinscale-upoverthenextthreeyears. Valuecreationspansacomplex,evolvingsupplychain.Thetransitiontowardadvancedconnectivityreshapeseconomicsacrossopticalengines,lasers,fiberarrayunits,PCBs,andtestingequipment,favoringtechnologyleaderswithmanufacturingdepthandecosystemcontrol. SeeDisclosureAppendixofthisreportforimportantdisclosuresandanalystcertifications OVERVIEW AIdatacentersarenolongerconstrainedbycomputepoweralone;datamovementwithinandbetweenrackshasbecometheprimarybottleneck.Connectivityisnowakeyperformanceandinvestmentfrontieracrossbothelectricalandopticaldomains.NVIDIA’sroadmapconfirmsthatcopperandopticalinterconnectswillcoexist,eachoptimizedfordifferentdistanceandpowerneeds.Forinvestors,thefocusisnotwhichtechnologywins,buthoweachcapturesvalueacrossthesupplychainandoverwhattimeline.ThisWhitebookoutlinesthekeytechnologytrends,economics,andsupplierpositioningshapingscale-upandscale-outconnectivity. Chapterstitled“Co-PackagedOptics:InsidetheWarforDataCenterConnectivity”and“MappingtheCPOValueChain”ofthisWhitebookexplorethestrategicvalue,adoptionschedule,andsupplychainofco-packagedoptics(CPO).CPOintegratesopticalengines(OEs)closertoswitch/AIchips,improvingpowerefficiencyandsignalintegrity.But,adoptionfaceschallengesinserviceability,manufacturingyield,testingcomplexity,andsupplierconcentration.Weexpectsmall-volumeCPOdeploymentinscale-outnetworksstarting2H26,withcopperremainingmainstreamforscale-upover2026-27.Also,CPOcostislikely~10%overpluggableopticsaftersystemmargins.CPOmanufacturingandtestingarechallenging,favoringtechnologyleaders.WebelieveTSMC’sCOmpactUniversalPhotonicEngine(COUPE)willbecomethemainplatform.ThetransitiontoCPOwilllikelybenefitOE,laser,fiberarrayunit,andequipmentvendors(suchasChroma).Forscale-upsolutions,copperwilllikelyremainthemainstreamover2026-28,andco-packagedcopper(CPC)islikelytoextenditslifecycle,benefitingplayerssuchasLuxshare. Chapterstitled“AIPCBPrimer:TechnologyandSupplyChain”and“AIPCBPrimer:Players,Positioning,andProfitability”ofthisWhitebookexploretheadvancementofprintedcircuitboard(PCB)andintegratedcircuit(IC)substratesectorsamidtheAIwave.WithinAIserverracks,connectivityadvancesalsohingeonboardsandsubstratesthatsustainhighersignalspeedsanddensities,liftingcontentvalueformulti-layerPCB,high-densityinterconnect(HDI)boards,andAjinomotoBuild-upFilm(ABF)substrates.CriticalmaterialssuchasT-glass,ABFfilm,high-endcopperfoil,andcopper-cladlaminates(CCLs)areshapingsupply-chaindynamics.Asof2025,AIserverdemandhasalreadyfueled50-100%revenuegrowthforseveralPCBandmaterialssuppliers.Marginexpansionmaymoderatefromlate2026amidintensifyingcompetition,capacityadditions,andrisingdepreciation.Nevertheless,newproductcycles(e.g.,midplanesandbackplanes),tightT-glasssupply,andgrowingApplication-specificIntegratedCircuit(ASIC)demandshouldsustainearningsmomentumfortechnologyleaders. AlexWangStacyA.Rasgon,ꢀPh.D.MarkLiDavidDai,ꢀCFAEuanMcLeishShirleyYangEthanXu May9,2026 TABLEOFCONTENTS CO-PACKAGEDOPTICS:INSIDETHEWARFORDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY5 MAPPINGTHECPOVALUECHAIN25 43AIPCBPRIMER:TECHNOLOGYANDSUPPLYCHAIN 63AIPCBPRIMER:PLAYERS,POSITIONING,ANDPROFITABILITY 85INVESTMENTOUTLOOK CO-PACKAGEDOPTICS:INSIDETHEWARFORDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY WhydoesCPOmatter?Byintegratingoptimalengines(OEs)withacceleratedprocessingunits(XPUs)or switch chips,CPO offers superior powerefficiency,signal integrity,andnetworkresiliencycomparedtopluggableopticaltransceivers.NVIDIAtargets3.5xmorepowerefficiencyand10xbetternetworkresiliencycomparedtopluggablesolutions,withinitialdeploymentguidedforlate2026withthreepartners.Broadcomisalreadyonitsthird-generationCPOswitchandLumentum(notcovered)hasconfirmedseveralhundredmilliondollarsofCPOproductordersforshipmentin2027. COPPERANDOPTICALTECHNOLOGIESEVOLVETOGETHERFORAIDATACENTERCONNECTIVITY CPOadoptionfacesmeaningfulobstacles,includingmanufacturingyield,testcomplexity,fibercoupling,andcloudserviceprovider(CSP)concernsaroundserviceabilityandvendorconcentration.NVIDIAandBroadcomareexpectedtouseTSMC’sCOUPEtechnologytobondelectronicandphotonicdies,withFAUsandmicro-opticspreciselyalignedontop.Comparedwithpluggableopticaltransceivers,thisapproachimprovesperformance,powerefficiency,bandwidthdensity,andrelia