劳动力市场升温：气温上升对欧洲企业和就业的影响

11375 Rising Heat in the Labor Market The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Firms and Jobsin EuropePublic Disclosure Authorized Luca BettarelliThomas FaroleMichael GanslmeirIndhira Vanessa SantosMarc Schiffbauer International Finance CorporationSocial Policy Global Department &Trade, Competition, and Business Global DepartmentMay 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11375 Abstract This paper studies the impact of rising heat on labor mar-kets across Europe by combining geocoded district-level,establishment-level, and wet-bulb temperature data. At thedistrict level, it constructs a panel covering 1,525 districtsacross 32 countries from 1980 to 2023, disaggregated by10 economic sectors to estimate dynamic labor marketresponses to wet-bulb temperature increases. The papercomplements the analysis using representative, geocodedsurveys covering more than 46,000 establishments. Thegranular microdata spanning many countries and decadesare essential to identify the gradual impact of wet-bulbtemperature changes on labor outcomes and allow assess-ing how firms and local labor markets respond to similarlong-term trends under different institutional settings.The analysis finds that a one-standard deviation increase inyearly wet-bulb temperature (0.7 degrees Celsius) reducesemployment growth by 0.3 percent two years later. From along-term perspective, the results indicate that the increasein wet-bulb temperature since 1980 may have reduced employment in Europe by around 1.1 million jobs, equiv-alent to more than half of a normal year of employmentgrowth. The effect is stronger in heat-exposed, low-wage,and labor-intensive sectors, as well as in small and youngestablishments, and varies systematically with regionalincome. The increased temperature leads to declines intotal hours worked and gross value-added levels. In con-trast to the negative employment impact, real average wagegrowth rises after temperature increases because low-skillworkers and low-wage establishments bear the brunt of theemployment impact within sectors. As a result, the compo-sition of employment shifts toward higher-paid jobs. Theimpact of rising wet-bulb temperature is in part explainedby limited adaptation. Fewer than one-third of the smallestablishments and about half of the large establishmentsin Europe invest in cooling technology, with establishmentsthat pay lower wages and face less favorable local businessenvironments being less likely to adapt. This paper is a product of the International Finance Corporation, the Social Policy Global Department, and the Trade,Competition, and Business Global Department. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank Group to provide open accessto its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research WorkingPapers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at tfarole@ifc.org,isantos@worldbank.org, and mschiffbauer@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is availableathttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Rising Heat in the Labor Market: The Impact of RisingTemperatures on Firms and Jobs in Europe1 Luca Bettarelli2, Thomas Farole3, Michael Ganslmeir4,Indhira Vanessa Santos5,MarcSchiffbauer6 Keywords:Climate change; Labor markets; Wet-bulb temperature; Adaptation JEL codes:Q54; J21; R11 I.Introduction In 2021, Florida,a small town in Sicily, Italy, recorded Europe’s highest temperature to date—48.8°C. Record-breaking heatwaves with temperatures up to 46 degrees hit Southern Europein 2010, 2022, 2024, and 2025. The events reflect a marked intensification of heat stress inEurope in recent decades, with both mean and extreme temperatures rising sharply acrossseasons, contributing to year-round thermal stress (Rousi et al., 2022; Barriopedro et al., 2023).Is Europe’s escalating heat stress costing jobs? If so, which jobs? And how do firms adapt? To address these questions, we leverage the rich district-level variation in climate withincountries. We combine satellite weather data with granular standardized district-level paneldataacross 32 European countri