全球模拟半导体：如何解释以及什么可能缩小估值差距

Global Analog Semis: How to explain, and what could potentially The valuation gap between Renesas & IFX and US peers has long been a key investorquestion. We studied the market over the past 10 years and found strong correlationbetween P/E and margins, returns, payout, and EPS growth. We see an opportunity for David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Margin and EPS growth:We’re optimistic about the analog semis industry and anticipaterevenue to rebound at 12% CAGR 25-28, driven by demand recovery, while marginsare structurally higher than in the previous upcycle. Both numbers are with upside ifshortages result in more price hikes. As a result,we see industry EPS to grow at a 30%CAGR25-28E, supporting valuation rerating; Renesas has the lowest multiple Carmine Milano+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.comJuho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Payouts: we see greater upside potential for Infineon and Renesas, driven bysignificant scope to raise their low payout ratios, which should support multipleexpansion. Infineon and Renesas average payout ratios are ~20%, while US peers are at~90%. We would call for both to consider increasing capital returns, particularly following Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com Returns expansion:In contrast, ROE and ROIC have declined since 2022, reflectingslower asset turnover following aggressive capacity expansion, M&A activity, and reducedleverage.Weexpect adj. ROE to return to growth reaching 35% in 2028, driven by Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com We see most valuation upside in Renesas, currently trading at only 15x P/E.Renesasshould benefit from a tightening supply-demand backdrop and potential price hike. It isalso well positioned with ~10-15% share in AI power and ~36% share in memory interfaceIC, which sees soaring demand due to agentic AI. Potential higher shareholder return,pricing increases, margin expansion and memory interface IC growth would all be catalystsfor rerating.IFX also stands out due to a clear margin improvement strategy and We have been neutral on our US names (TXN, ADI, NXPI), mostly on valuation,though the industrial recovery appears to be upon us.Among the three, TXN hasreached the end of their capex cycle and hence is seeing an inflection in FCF/shareand datacenter (DC) (while only ~10% of revenue) is growing rapidly, though increaseddepreciation continues to weigh on margins. ADI probably has the best industrial mix(defense, ATE etc) as well as a (small) DC narrative, and has been more cautious on auto BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS ADI (Market-Perform, $375.00):ADI is executing well with both cyclical and idiosyncratic drivers, though the shares remainexpensive TXN (Market-Perform, $250.00):TXN shares feel fully valued in the current environment. Infineon:We rate InfineonOutperform, PT=€74.00. Renesas:We rate RenesasOutperform, PT=¥4,200.00. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS After the sharp correction in 2024 and only a modest recovery in 2025, analog companies are attracting increased attentionfrom investors looking to capitalize on the next up-cycle and the AI opportunity.We are becoming increasingly positive onthe analog semis sector as we anticipate revenue to rebound in 2026, with margins now structurally higher than in theprevious upcycle. As a result, we expect EPS growth to accelerate from here growing at a 30% CAGR over the next In the following sections, we analyze what has historically driven the valuation gap and how this gap could potentially narrow. Wethen examine the major financial metrics that have the greatest impact on multiples and provide our outlook and expectations •For revenue growth, we expect acceleration to an 12% CAGR over the next three years.The fastest-growing companyin our coverage is Infineon at 15% CAGR, followed by Renesas and ADI, both growing at 13% CAGR. •Analog profitability has improved materially over the past decade with margins now structurally higher than in the previousupcycle.Average adjusted GM increased from 45% in 2015 to 51% in 2025, peaking at 57% in 2022, and we expectit to reach ~56% by 2028.High operating leverage drove even stronger gains in OpM, which rose from 19% in 2015to 26% in 2025, with a peak of 37% in 2022. We anticipate operating margins will move back close to post covid levels,reaching 35% in 2028. Adj. net income margins expanded similarly, rising from 14% to 21% and reaching 30% in 2023. ADI •For returns, the average adjusted ROE has been quite volatile over the past ten years. It stood at around 20% in 2015,peaked at approximately 45% in 2022, and declined to 24% in 2025. This sharp decline was partially driven by lowerprofitability in the recent downcycle but was also caused by a strong increase in assets, and therefore equity, due to capacity Among ana