味之素Q4：业绩稳健，但令人失望的指引带来的疑问多于答案

Rating Market-Perform Price Target Ajinomoto Q4: Solid print, but disappointing guidance asks morequestions than it answers Q4 was broadly in line with revenue +11% yoy, and BP +67%, withHealthcare and FrozenFood downsidemore than offset by beats in ABF revenue and EMEA Healthcare. Guidance(BP +9%) was disappointing and, even when we substitute in our ABF number for thecompany’s conservative +11% est, we only get to growth in line with consensus. The companyflagged ¥30b of incremental raw material downside risk impacting across to board whichlooks light vs our ¥37-67b est (link), and we’ll be looking for imminent pricing decisions ifthe company is to insulate the P&L. While it was good to see ABF capacity expansion in thepipeline, 2032 is a long way away, and we expect a negative market reaction to management’sforceful push back on activist pressure to increase ABF prices. The lack of incremental sharebuy backs was a disappointment and raises the risk of imminent M&A. ABF BP beat our est by ¥1.5b with revenue growing +42% and, while operational leverageremained depressed at 1.3x, we expect this to bounce back to c. 1.7x from Q1 onward, andwe expect revenues to maintain their c. 30% growth run rate. Healthcare is the largest driverof BP guidance for FY3/27 and, while we expect earnings to remain lumpy, the trajectory ofForge IND applications and the newly announced partnerships give us increased confidencein the delivery of guidance. We expect Frozen Foods to remain a drag in FY3/27, withparticular margin vulnerability to raw material prices given high PET exposure, low marginsand weak pricing power. We also expect the impact of the US recall to impact FY3/27. Click here to register for our fireside chat with CEO Nakamura on May 27th Investment Implications We raise our PT to ¥5,100after trimming our FY3/27 EBITDA by -1% (model), but thisis more than offset by rolling forward our valuation base. Our FY3/27&8 EBITDA is now+8/10% vs consensus. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE