DB CoTD：惊人的一季度

Global Head of Macro and Thematic Research the market and political implications of the Iran conflict. You can see it here.Thispackis openlyaccessible ontheDeutscheBankResearchInstitutesite-pleasefeelfree to share it with anyone who might be interested. +44-20-754-72943HenryAllen Macro Strategist+44-20-754-11149Raj Bhattacharyya Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte's excellentearningsround-up,(link here),earningsaresignificantlyexceeding consensus estimatesacross all metrics,despiteahighbar.S&P500earningsgrowth isprojectedtoacceleratesharplyfrom13.4%inQ4to24.6%inQ1-afour-yearhighanda level rarelyseenoutsideof post-shockrecoveries.Excluding special factors,this represents arguablythe strongestearningsgrowthintwo decades.The Alboom isaclearcontributor,but strengthiswidespread,withdouble-digitgrowthseeninaverageandmediancompanies,andall 11 sectors posting positive growth for the first time in fouryears.This strongperformance has in many places been driven by higher prices amid supplyconstraints, surgingdemandwithinthe Al value chain,and other disruptions. ResearchAssociate Figure1:Q1USearningsbeatshavesofarsignificantlysurpassedtheelevatedrangeofthepastthreeyears,reachinglevelsnotseensincethepost-pandemicboom.Excludingrecoveriesfrommajorslowdowns,thisquarter'searningsgrowthis thehighestinovertwodecades.8 InlightoftheserobustQ1results,ourteamhasraised its2026EPSforecastfrom$320to$342,driven bystrongQ1beats,gravity-defyingperformance inMCG& Thematic Research target of 8000,afigurethatgarnered significant raised eyebrows upon its releaselast November. Further details are available in Binky's report. outperformedmanymarketssincethestartofthe Iranconflict,thishas onlymovedit from the bottomquartileto the middle of the global pack year-to-date (Page 5 ofmychartbook).Even witha surge sincetheconflictbegan,techperformance overthepastsixmonths (sincetheendofOctober)shows onlyamodestincrease (Page9).Given current high valuations, strong earnings growth is helping the US market"growinto"thesevaluations,yetothermarketshave demonstratednotablybetterperformanceoverthelast18months(Page6).Thesedynamics areexploredindetailwithin the chartbook. Appendix 1 *Otherinformationavailableuponrequest exchangesviaReuters,Bloombergandothervendors.OtherinformationissourcedfromDeutscheBank,subjectcompaniesand othersources.ForfurtherinformationregardingdisclosuresrelevanttoDeutscheBank Research,pleasevisitourglobaldisclosurelook-uppageonourwebsiteathttps:/research.db.com/Research/Disclosures/FiCCDisclosures.AsidefromwithinDisclaimer.Investors arestrongly encouragedto reviewthis informationbefore investing. Analyst CertificationThe views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst(s).In addition,the undersignediead analyst(s)has notand will not receive any compensation forprovidinga specific recommendation or viewin this report. Jim Reid, Henry Allen. Thematic Research The informationandopinions in this reportwerepreparedbyDeutsche Bank AG orone ofits affiliates (collectively'Deutsche Bank').Though the information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to bereliable,DeutscheBankmakesnorepresentationastoitsaccuracyorcompleteness.Hyperlinkstothird-partywebsitesinthisreport are provided for reader convenience only. Deutsche Bank neither endorses the content nor is responsible for theaccuracyor security controlsofthose websites. isincludedordiscussedinanothercommunication(oralorwritten)fromaDeutscheBankanalyst,DeutscheBankmayactasprincipalforitsownaccountorasagentforanotherperson. including strategists,sales staff and other analysts,maytakeviewsthatare inconsistent with thosetaken inthis researchreport.Deutsche Bankissues a.variety_of researchproducts,including fundamental analysis,equity-linked.analysis,quantitative analysis and trade ideas. Recommendationscontained in one type of communication may differ fromrecommendations contained in others,whetheras a result of differing time horizons,methodologies,perspectives orotherwise.DeutscheBankand/orits affiliatesmayalsobeholdingdebtorequitysecurities oftheissuers itwriteson.Analystsare paid in part based on the profitability of Deutsche Bank AG and its affiliates, which includes investment banking,tradingandprincipaltradingrevenues. necessarilyreflecttheopinionsofDeutscheBankandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.DeutscheBankprovides liquidityfor buyers and sellers of securities issued bythe companies it covers.Deutsche Bank research analysts sometimeshaveshorter-term trade ideas thatmay be inconsistent withDeutsche Bank's existing longer-term ratings.Some trade ideas forequitiesarelistedasCatalystCallsontheResearchWebsite(https://research.db.com/Research/),andcanbefoundonthegeneralcoveragelistandalsoonthecoveredcompany'spage.ACatalystCallrepresentsahigh-convictionbeliefbyananalystthata stockwilloutperformorunderperformthemarketand/oraspecifiedsectoroveratimeframeofnolessthantwoweeksDeutsche