2026年第一季度欧洲电力市场摘要

Contents Electricity Market Q1 2026European Power Market Day-ahead price trends9 Notes on the report Quarterly Review of EuropeanElectricity Market Q1 2026 •Summary: Q1 2026 saw the following keytrends:•Gas reached the highest prices seen since the announcement of the two week pause onApril 8th, but remain well above those seenbefore the outbreak of the conflict. Doubtsremain as to whether the ceasefire will hold and how quickly production would be able toresume even if the strait was to remain open.The crucial Ras Laffen export hub in Qatar wasdamaged in March and will take several months strait of Hormuz•Cold weather caused demand to spike acrossmuch of Europe•Highest renewable generation on record,driving the highest total generation seen since2022•Negative prices are off a strong start, andare expected to continue to set new records,throughout the rest of the year in mostcountries•A North Sea offshore wind pact was signedamong 10 countries, targeting buildout of afurther 100GW of generation capacityThese trends highlight how the interplaybetween weather and global geopoliticsdetermine electricity prices against a backdropto repair.•Highest renewable generation on recordthanks to strong hydro, a recovery in windgeneration and ongoing growth in solar: totalrenewable generation across the quartertotalled 384.9TWh. The biggest contributorto the overall figure was wind, with 173.7TWhacross the quarter, a 22% rise on Q1 2025. Thisquarter saw the second highest wind outputon record, beaten only by Q1 2024, whichhad 175.6TWh. Hydro totalled 128.6TWh, 8%above Q1 2025 but 6% below Q1 2024. This represents a recovery from Q3 2025, duringwhich low levels of rainfall caused hydrooutput to slump to 97.1TWh. By contrast, thiswinter has seen unusually high levels of rainfall,allowing for a replenishment of reservoirsand for hydro output to return to more usuallevels. Solar outturn continued its steady climb,with capacity growth causing the quarterlygeneration total of 52.6TWh to be the highestsolar outturn for any Q1 on record, 15% abovethe same period last year, and 128% abovethe same period in 2019. Despite being thehighest quarterly total on record, the proportionof generation that came from renewablesremained at 48.8%, below the equivalentpercentage seen in previous quarters. •Conflict around the strait of Hormuz threatensto have long-lasting impact on gas prices: the primary producer. This flow was disruptedwith the commencement of “Operation EpicFury” on February 28th when the UnitedStates and Israel began to strike Iran from theair. In response to this, Iran struck numerous markets, with the TTF gas price rising from31.53/MWh at the start of the conflict to 53.93/ 100GW of extra capacity: after ten countriesmet to negotiate the agreement in Hamburg.Together they agreed an aim of 100GW ofadditional offshore wind, nearly three timesthe current installed capacity. The assetswould be shared between countries, via hybridinterconnectors and offshore price zones.Despite their ambition, questions remain aboutthe regulation and feasibility of such a largebuildout of capacity, but it does send a clearmessage as to government commitment level seen since 2022: with Central andEastern Europe most impacted. January sawtemperatures 1-4°C colder than average,driving up total demand across the quarter to829.3TWh, an increase of 1.4% and 1.5% versus across Q1 2026, which represents a large jumpagainst the same period in 2025 (48), and notfar off the total number across 2025 (555). TheIberian peninsula was not affected by the coldweather that drove up demand across muchof Europe, with Spanish demand unchangedfrom Q1 2025, which combined with strongsolar outturn to cause prices to go negativefrequently during hours of the day with highsolar production. Spanish prices reachedas low as -58.6MWh between 12:00-12:45on February 21st, when solar outturn totalled15.6GW, and demand was 24.6GW. Most othercountries saw similar totals, but one region thatsaw fewer instances of negative prices acrossQ1 was the Nordics, with Denmark, Swedento further offshore wind projects. Thiscommitment stands in contrast to the otherside of the Atlantic, where wind projects arefacing hostility from the American government.In March one developer was paid 1 billion USDto walk away from two offshore wind projectsoff the Eastern Seaboard. •Geopolitical uncertainty is set to continue•Weather will determine if further renewable neighbour. Even if the strait were to be opento passage, many questions remain; will a tollbe charged on goods? And will productionfacilities be able to resume in a timely manner?The extent of the damage will take time towork its way through the global economy.Gas prices will remain elevated versus pre-war levels for some time to come. Europe iscurrently comfortable given the lower demandoutside of winter, but stocks will have to bereplenished before the coming winter against abackdrop of heightened competition with Asia.of