ServiceNow 2026年分析师日：到2030年提升标准

Peter Weed+1 917 344 8390peter.weed@bernsteinsg.com Luwei Yang+1 917 344 8342luwei.yang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target NOW 236.00 USD(226.00OLD) ServiceNow Analyst Day 2026: Raising the bar through 2030 ServiceNow's Analyst Day on one hand added a bullish tailwind, putting out a base long term2030 guidance they would INCREASE their Rule of 40 to 60+ (vs. 56 currently), with FCFmargins implicitly rising ~900bps vs. ‘25, and SBC % of revenue drops to <10% by ‘29 (vs.~15% today). Unfortunately, they also fed the bears who believe any level of decelerationis intolerable, as their 2030 subscription revenue target of $30B (vs. FY26 ~$15.75Bguidance) suggested growth decelerates towards mid-teens. The bears also point to AIcontribution rising to ~30% of ACV suggesting their “core” growth ex-AI will be <10% CAGR— bears don’t believe the AI contribution, and thus total revenue growth will collapse. After leadership meetings, our bullish “Agent OS” revenue thesis seems validated.Webelieve their communication may have come across as very detailed and technical, and maynot have been fully appreciated for how well positioned they are. AI is quickly becoming tablestakes in enterprise software, which is precisely why ServiceNow has embedded AI nativelyacross its platform rather than bolting it on. Core components and new offerings such as AIControl Tower, Context Engine, and Action Fabric are converging to position ServiceNowas the “Agent OS” for enterprise workflows. Importantly, management is not seeing pricingpressure or budget trade-offs to fund AI. Customers are focused on ROI, and ServiceNow’sAI products are designed and sold around measurable returns. ...and we are incrementally bullish on margins.We estimate headcount is alreadyreduced 15-20% vs. historic path (Exhibit 1). They plan to continue to depress OpEx throughback-office AI-headcount productivity and strategic use of lower cost locations (incremental$200MM savings in ‘26, for instance). Leverage is in spite of strong hiring plans for quotabearing sales, forward deployed engineers, and product. On COGS, management indicatedAI inferencing gross margins are solidly in the mid-to-high 80%, and the near term pressurefrom “BYO Cloud” will turn around with scale and operational efficiency. Investment Implications We raise our margin model by 3-4% in 2030 (revenue unchanged). Using our 50/50 Ro40-based multiples regression (~13x P/NTM revenue), and DCF (~10% WACC, 3% terminalgrowth) we raise our PT to $236 and maintain our Outperform rating. DETAILS Other highlights from management discussions: CRM and Industry Workflows continues its competitive displacement, with management saying it exceeded $2B (upfrom $1.8B in Q4).They noted consistent wins against Salesforce, and smaller portions from SAP and Zendesk in high touch,customer service oriented accounts and for their Configure Price Quote product area. Security is also becoming a meaningful growth contributor, exceeding $1B+ ACV in Q3’25.Rather than selling securitystand alone, these products are tightly integrated value propositions and are often pulled organically into platform evaluations.CISO / cybersecurity team is engaged naturally through the broader qualification, making for a natural “good hygiene” extensionthat gets added to implementations. >50% non-seat based pricing, but the scale / repeatable format appears to still be in a test and learn mode.They agree that customers struggle with consumption, and prefer certain models. They are working with customers to find the approach that works best for them — balancing appropriate capture of ROI and incremental agents / usage value forServiceNow with predictability with customers. We anticipate this will take perhaps several years to fully stabilize, given so muchis in flux for customers on their own internal operations, implementation maturity, use cases, etc. EXHIBIT 1:Tracking ServiceNow’s hiring shows a strong drop-off in OpEx functions. Management emphasizesthis reflects just back office portions, while hiring in Quota’s reps, Product Engineering, and forward deployedengineers remains robust. APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Socié