全球软件：中端市场ERP处于AI拐点

Global software: Mid-market ERP at the AI inflection point Mid-market ERP is entering a defining phase, in our view. The convergence ofcloudmigration, subscription economics, and - most critically - AIis reshaping growthdurability, margin structure, and competitive positioning across the sector. While theunderlying market remains attractive - SMB and mid-market ERP spending is expectedto grow annually at c.13% through 2030, representing a cumulative c.$233bn in revenueopportunity over 2026-30 -AI, not cloud adoption, is starting to become the principaldriver of value creation and valuation dispersion. Richard Nguyen+33 1 42 13 54 22richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Derric Marcon+33 1 58 98 06 30derric.marcon@bernsteinsg.com AI-enabled ERP is scaling rapidly, with market penetration expected to approach c.90%by the end of the decade. Early deployments focused on copilots and assistants, whichhave quickly become table stakes. The value frontier is now shifting toward agentic andautonomous workflows that automate finance, supply chain, HR, and vertical-specificprocesses end-to-end. Executed well, these capabilities expand total addressable market,lift average revenue per user (ARPU) through bundling and premium tiers, shortenimplementation cycles, and lower cost-to-serve. Executed poorly, they introduce rising R&Dand compute costs without commensurate pricing upside. Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Cloud migration provides stability rather than upside at this stage of the cycle. SaaS ERPcontinues to grow steadily, but the remaining migrations are increasingly complex andservices-heavy. As a result, the next leg of growth and margin expansion must come from AI-driven productivity and monetization, not migration volume alone. Specialist Sales Kiran Shah, CFA+44 20 3547 1533kiran.shah@bernsteinsg.com Competitive dynamics are bifurcating. Scaled platforms (Microsoft, Oracle, SAP, Workday)benefitfrom unified data models,deep AI investment,and hyperscaler economics,strengthening lock-in and cross-sell. At the same time, focused specialists - finance-led,vertical, or regional vendors - retain defensible positions where domain-specific AI deliversfaster and more tangible ROI. The market is likely to reward both ends of the spectrum, whileundifferentiated generalists face pressure. Keith Murray+1 917 344 8435keith.murray@bernsteinsg.com Bull case. In the upside scenario, AI becomes a structural growth and margin tailwind.Vendors successfully embed autonomous workflows, monetize via bundles and usage-basedtiers, and use automation to offset higher R&D intensity. ERP evolves into high-margin,recurring platforms with expanding ARPU, strong retention, and improving FCF conversion.Scale players compound share, while focused specialists sustain premium niches. Bear case. In the downside scenario, AI commoditizes faster than pricing adjusts.Vendors absorb higher development and compute costs simply to stay competitive,while implementation bottlenecks and cautious customers delay monetization. Cloudinfrastructure and services intensity cap margin recovery, and ERP drifts toward mission-critical but low-return infrastructure. Investment conclusion. This is no longer a sector-beta trade. Valuation outcomes will bedriven by AI execution. Our analysis shows thatMicrosoftandOracleemerge as “sooner”AI compounders;SAPandWorkdayremain execution-dependent; andSagerepresents adefensive quality story. For investors, selectivity is essential. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We reiterate our ratings and price targets on Sage (covered by R. Nguyen), on SAP (co-covered by M. Moerdler and R. Nguyen),and on Microsoft, Oracle and Workday (covered by M. Moerdler). Outperform: Microsoft (PT $646)Oracle (PT $319)SAP (PT €276 / $323)Workday (PT $214) Market-Perform:Sage (PT 1,340p) Table Of Contents Investment summary...............................................................................................................................................................................................................4Mid-market ERP at the crossroads................................................................................................................................................................................... 8The bull case: AI-enabled, cloud-native compounders.......................................................................................................................................9The bear case: Slowing S-curve, margin drag, commoditized AI.................................................................................................................... 9Investment implication: This is a stock-picking market, not a beta trade.................................................................................................. 10T