浅析新鲜狗粮革命与市场增长

Consumer Category CloseupThe Battle for the (Dog Food)Bowl Please refer to important disclosures on pages 34 and 35. Analyst certification is on page 34.William Blair or an affiliate does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As aresult, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of thisreport. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The opinions and recommendations here- Executive Summary...........................................................................................................3The Category: It’s a Dog’s World.......................................................................................4The Trends: More Than a Few New Tricks......................................................................10The Participants: Breeds Both Large and Small.............................................................18 Category Closeupis a report, published periodically, that profiles and examines developments ina specific consumer packaged goods category. In this volume, we consider dog food in the U.S.,including reviews of category structure, consumer trends, and influential brands swaying the level and division of growth. Note that from time to time, we use the term “fresh” to representthe gently cooked fresh and frozen segment of the dog food category. We separate this report 1.We help make the case for long-term investment in the category.Dog food is an attractivecategory, in part because of the size of the addressable market and nature of the relationshipbetween dog and pet parent. The humanization of pets is embodied in the concept “zooeyia”—a term used to emphasize the ways in which companion animals can improve one’s emotional, 2.We seek to illuminate important trends influencing the category.With pet humanizationtrends squarely in place, category participants are rightly seeking ways to drive and capitalize on growth through multifaceted innovation. This includes new fresh products with all naturalingredients supported by production techniques, innovative distribution methods includingdirect to consumer (DTC), effective brand building through marketing, and high-impact mer- 3.We profile select industry participants—that is, traditional companies that have beenserving the dog food market for decades and newer dog food businesses and brands that are bringing innovative products and processes to the category to better serve explicit andlatent consumer needs. To do so, we conducted interviews with founders and executives, 4.We project the potential of the fresh segment and share stock considerations for cov-ered companies including Freshpet and Chewy.As the pioneer in the fresh refrigerated dog food category at retail, Freshpet is in an enviable position with a first-mover advantage andwide moat. As a leading online pet retailer with a new fresh offering named Get Real, Chewyhas the potential to leverage its substantive user base and direct delivery capabilities to pen- For purposes of this report, we use third-party point-of-sale data to gain visibility into marketand company-level trends, including size, growth, and share. This syndicated data covers channelssuch as food retailers, mass merchants, and convenience stores, but excludes certain customersin e-commerce and club store channels. In addition, we use consumer panel data to better under- “The more I learn about people, the more I like my dog.” This quote, attributed to Mark Twain, mayhelp explain the seeming perpetually increasing levels of dog ownership and the more humanisticbonds being established between pet parents and their dogs. Moreover, it helps bolster the casefor long-term investment in the category and, more specific, the fresh segment. We believe that dog Large Addressable MarketDog ownership is important and ingrained in society. Over the past decade, the number of dog- owning households in the U.S. increased from about 57 million to 68 million (reflecting low-single-digit growth), and keeping dog-owning households as a percentage of all households near 50%.During this same period, as younger cohorts have aged into owning their own pets, the number of Omnichannel spending on pet food and treats reached about $54 billion (at retail) in 2025, grow-ing at a compound annual rate in the upper-single digits over the past six years. Despite a dip in2025, dog food spending per household grew at a strong compound annual rate of about 7% over than expansion of dog owning households. In exhibit 2, we show the dog food category at retail(U.S. xAOC + convenience, excluding online, club, specialty) represented about $16 billion in 2025 Taking an omnichannel view (including online, club, specialty), we believe the dog food categoryis closer to $23 billion and grew at a rate of 8% during the same timeframe. However, the real ex-citement is in the fresh dog food segment, which grew at a compound a