天然气市场报告，Q22026（英）

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Slovak RepublicSpainSwedenSwitzerlandRepublic of TürkiyeUnited KingdomUnited States IndonesiaKenyaMoroccoSenegalSingaporeSouth AfricaThailandUkraineViet Nam The IEA examines the full spectrum ofenergy issues including oil, gas and coalsupply and demand, renewable energytechnologies, electricity markets, energyefficiency, access to energy, demandside management and much more.Through its work, the IEA advocatespolicies that will enhance the reliability,affordability and sustainability of energyin its 32 Member countries,13 Association countries and beyond. IEAMember countries:Australia AustriaBelgiumCanadaCzech RepublicDenmarkEstoniaFinlandFranceGermanyGreeceHungaryIrelandItalyJapanKoreaLatviaLithuaniaLuxembourgMexicoNetherlandsNew ZealandNorwayPolandPortugal The European Commissionalso participates in the work ofthe IEA This publication, as well as any dataand map included herein, are withoutprejudice to the status of or sovereigntyover any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city orarea. IEAAccession countries: BrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaIsraelRomania IEAAssociation countries: ArgentinaChinaEgyptIndia Source: IEA.International Energy AgencyWebsite: www.iea.org Abstract This edition of the IEA's quarterlyGas Market Reportprovides acomprehensive review of developments during the 2025/26 heatingseason and a special spotlight on the effects of the war in theMiddle East on international gas markets. Amid the major supplyshock caused by the disruptions to shipping through the Strait ofHormuz and attacks on regional energy infrastructure, it examinesthe conflict’s implications for gas supply and demand at both theregional and global levels. The report also analyses theconsequences for storage, shipping and prices – providing criticalinsights on evolving market trends. through the permanent Working Party on Natural Gas andSustainable Gases Security (GWP). The loss of nearly 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplydue to the effective closure of the strait is distorting short-term gasmarket fundamentals, while damage from attacks on LNGliquefaction facilities in the Middle East is altering the medium-termoutlook. The conflict is now expected to delay a significant amountof new LNG capacity that had been on track to come online in thesecond half of this decade. While gas producers are making effortsto increase supply, the demand side is set to play a key role inbalancing the market – particularly in Asia, where fuel switching isalready picking up alongside energy-saving measures. The current energy crisis highlights the need to further strengthenthe architecture of global gas supply security. The InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) continues to support this process, including Table of contents Executive summary........................................................................................5Gas market update.......................................................................................11Spotlight on the Middle East ........................................................................45Annex ...........................................................................................................63 Executive summary The Middle East conflict has disrupted gas market fundamentals and is changing the medium-term outlook output from selected legacy exporters. The Plaquemines LNG plantin Louisiana alone accounted for almost half of the incremental LNGsupply through this period and played a key role in the easing ofmarket fundamentals. Consequently, natural gas prices in Asia andEurope continued to soften October-February amid improving LNGsupply availability. In Europe, TTF prices fell by 24% in the first twomonths of 2026 year-on-year, while in Asia, Platts JKM pricesdeclined by 27% compared with their levels last year. The war in the Middle East is sending shockwaves throughenergy markets.The easing of fundamentals in internationalnatural gas markets in early 2026 was abruptly disrupted by thede facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of March,which has created unprecedented uncertainty. The crisis has profoundly distorted short-term marketfundamentals and is altering the medium-term outlook fornatural gas.The loss, for the time being, of almost 20% of globalLNG supply has caused strong price volatility, driving up natural gasprices in both Asia and Europe to their highest levels since the2022/23 energy crisis and prompting an adjustment in natural gasdemand. In the Middle East, attacks on the region’s oil and gasinfrastructure lowered gas supply availability for domestic markets.Furthermore, damage to LNG liquefaction infrastructure reduced theoutlook for global LNG supply over the medium term and isexpected to delay the effect of the unfolding LNG wave – a centraltheme of the IEA’s latest medium-term outlook. Colder weather conditions together with lower natu