中国动力电池月度图表：5月储能LFP电池产量将加速增长

China’s power battery output is set to rise both mom and yoy in May ’26,mainly driven by ESS, according to ICCSINO data. Among NCM batteries,only Eve will see increased output mom due to BMW orders. Battery pricesare expected to remain stable mom, with higher upstream costs limited tocathodes. After CNY, shipments rebounded—particularly for ESS—while EVbattery growth was seen only in the CV segment, where tier-2 players gainedmarket share from CATL. Scheduled production volume (ICCSINO, Fig1):Most major power battery makers are set toincrease LFP battery output mom in May 2026E, led by strong BESS demand; only that of CALBwill remain flat mom. Eve is projected to be the only company with higher NCM output mom inMay '26, driven by BMW’s cylindrical battery orders. CATL anticipates a 15% mom rise in LFPoutput in May ’26 and a 68% yoy increase for 5M26, while its NCM output will drop 8% momin May ’26 but rise 20% yoy for 5M26. Gotion, BYD, and Eve see faster LFP growth in May ‘26compared to May ‘25, while CALB stays steady. For 5M26, Gotion expects a 93% yoy leap inLFP production, Eve 70%, and CALB 53%. Gotion and CALB forecast yoy NCM output declinesin 5M26, while Eve projects a 136% yoy surge in 5M26. Pricing trend (ICCSINO data, Fig2): According to ICCSINO's sample, LFP and NCM batteryprices at major power battery companies will remain stable mom in May '26.Regardingupstream materials, ICCSINO predicts that only cathode prices will continue to rise mom inMay '26, while anode and separator prices should hold steady mom, and electrolyte prices areset to decrease mom again. Mar '26 power battery production, shipment, and installation data recap: Production:CABIA reports that China's power battery production rebounded in Mar ‘26,increasing about 26% mom after a low base in Feb '26 caused by the CNY holiday. For 1Q26,overall power battery output in China was up 49% yoy. Growth was especially strong in the LFPbattery segment, driven by rising downstream ESS demand; LFP battery production climbedaround 28% mom and 55% yoy in Mar ‘26, with quarterly LFP output up c.52% yoy. NCMbattery output also rose, increasing 16% mom and c.32% yoy in Mar ‘26, and total NCM batteryproduction in China grew 40% yoy during 1Q26. Shipment:China’s power battery shipments rose sharply in March 2026, up about 55% momand 52% yoy, boosted by post Chinese New Year demand. In 1Q26, shipments increasedroughly 53% year-on-year. EV battery growth lagged behind ESS batteries in Mar ’26 and 1Q26,with EV battery exports outpacing EV battery domestic shipments. Domestic ESS shipmentsgrew faster than ESS exports in Mar ’26 and 1Q26, partly due to indirect overseas sales todomestic customers’ global operations. 1. EV battery:In March '26, EV battery shipments in China surged 54% mom and 31% yoy; 1Q26saw a 34% rise overall, with exports up 51% and domestic shipments up 31% yoy. LFP batteryexports jumped 81% yoy, outpacing NCM’s 31%. EV battery installations grew c.115% mom butremained flat yoy in Mar '26. Overall EV battery installations in China was down 4% yoy in 1Q26;LFP and NCM battery installations were largely flat yoy in 1Q26. Avg carried battery capacityper BEV and PHEV in China increased yoy but fell mom. The shipment-to-installation inventoryratio reached 2.2x in Mar '26, above the 1.3x average. NEV sales by OEMs were stable yoy forMar '26 and 1Q26, while new-energy CV sales rose 18% and PV sales dropped 5% in 1Q26. 2. ESS battery:Total shipments increased approximately 57% mom and 116% yoy in March ’26,with 1Q26 growth exceeding 111% yoy. Both domestic and export shipments rose mom in Mar ‘26,with domestic shipments up about 164% yoy and exports up 14% in 1Q26. Competition:CATL continued to lose m/s mom in Mar '26, alhough its overall m/s was still up3.4ppts yoy for 1Q26, led by a yoy gain in the PV segment but a loss in the CV segment. It maintainedits m/s yoy in the LFP battery segment in 1Q26. Gotion and Eve both gained m/s mom and yoy inMar '26, each increasing 0.5ppts yoy in 1Q26. Eve and Gotion lost share in the PV segment to BYD,LGES, and Zenergy in 1Q26 except Sunwoda but gained m/s in the CV segments primarily fromCATL, mainly through supplying LFP batteries. Production .Source: CABIA, Jefferies .Source: CABIA, Jefferies Shipment Source: CABIA, Jefferies Source: CABIA, Jefferies Source: CABIA, Jefferies Source: CAAM, Jefferies Source: CAAM, Jefferies Source: ICCsino, Jefferies Competition