发展委员会：总经理书面声明

April 2026 The world faces the spillovers from the war in the Middle East. In addition to the human toll, its economiceffects are global and uneven, once again hitting the poorest and most vulnerable countries the hardest.This comes at a time when policy space has been eroded and geopolitical tensions have been increasing.Spillovers to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) will transmit through supply disruptions, highercommodity prices, second-round effects on inflation and expectations, tighter global financial conditions,exchange rate pressures, and reduced remittances from members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).The appropriate policy response depends on how the shock propagates through the domestic economy,calling for pragmatism and agility, supported by credible policy frameworks. In LIDCs, near term policiesshould be anchored in credible frameworks, while concerted efforts are key to enhance resilience andgrowth potential. Domestic structural reforms, including building strong institutions, also have animportant role in the medium-term to attract stronger FDI inflows and create jobs. Robust support fromthe international community will be essential—especially for the most vulnerable LIDCs and fragile andconflict-affected states (FCS). The IMF stands ready to deploy all its tools to assist the membership—supporting sound policies, helping ensure this new test does not derail key medium-term priorities, andproviding balance of payments financing where needed. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS The global economy hasdemonstratedresilience through repeated shocks,including from ongoing wars and conflicts, and elevated uncertainty. It now faces amajor new test. The war in the Middle East has already caused damage to criticalinfrastructure and disrupted transport, affecting trade and energy, and poses aserious threat to the global economy. Fuel and fertilizer prices could remain high fora prolonged period, and shortages of key inputs could have implications for energy,food, and other industries. The war has also triggered other spillovers, such asforcibly displaced people and reduced travel and tourism. At the same time,profound transformations in technology, demographics, and the environment arecreating complex challenges and new opportunities. The resilience ofthe globaleconomy is onceagain beingtested. Global growth willslow and inflationwill pick up. The outlook is highly uncertain, but even with a relatively swift normalization,growth will slow and inflation will increase. Under our reference forecast—in whichdisruptions fade by mid-2026—global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2026and 3.2 in 2027, below its recent pace of about 3.4 percent in 2024–25. Relative to the January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the forecast is revised down by0.2 percentage point for 2026 and that for 2027 is unchanged, reflecting disruptionsfrom the conflict in the Middle East, partly offset by continued tailwinds, includinglower tariff rates, preexisting policy support, and stronger-than-expected dataoutturns through the turn of this year, with growth projections unchanged over themedium term. Under the reference forecast,Advanced Economies (AEs) growth is projectedto be1.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027, compared with 1.9 percent in 2025. Thisis mainly due to positive terms of trade effects in the United States and strongergrowth momentum and offsetting government measures in Japan. A large negativeeffect is expected only in some net energy-importing economies, such as the euroarea and the United Kingdom. Growth in AEs isprojected toremain subdued. Growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)under thereference forecast is projected to fall from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 3.9 percent in 2026and 4.2 percent in 2027, with notable regional divergence. Growth in the MiddleEast and Central Asia is expected to drop sharply from 3.6 percent in 2025 to 1.9percent in 2026, before recovering to 4.6 percent in 2027, as the region experiencesthe most direct impact of the conflict and the expected subsequent rebound.Relative to 2025, growth in 2026 is projected to decline from 5.5 percent to 4.9percent in emerging and developing Asia, and from 4.5 to 4.3 percent in sub-Saharan Africa. In Latin America and the Caribbean, growth is projected to remainbroadly stable at 2.3 percent in 2026 and pick up to 2.7 percent in 2027, while inemerging and developing Europe the sharp slowdown in 2025 to a growth rate of2.0 percent is expected only to reverse modestly to around 2.1 percent in 2027.These differences reflect varying exposures to geopolitical shocks, commodity pricemovements, and domestic conditions. ForEMDEs,growth is alsoexpected tomoderate, withlarge regionalvariations. Growthin low-incomeanddevelopingcountries(LIDCs)is revised downward by0.3percentage points to 4.8 percent in 2026 and 4.9 percent in 2027 under thereference forecast. The growth outlook has become more fragile and risks are rising