发展委员会：总经理书面声明

October 2025 The global economy is undergoing a profound transformation, and uncertainty runs high. The outlookpoints to dim growth prospects, both in the short and the medium term, though with notable variationsacross countries and regions. Low-income developing countries (LIDCs) face specific challenges, includinghigh debt vulnerabilities, a dearth of external financing flows, cuts to official aid, and more restrictiveimmigration policies. The world’s poorest economies are particularly at risk of seeing their growthmomentum decelerate and their per capita income gap relative to advanced economies widen. At thecurrent conjuncture of sweeping policy shifts, heightened uncertainty, and weak medium-term growthprospects, it is crucial to implement credible and sustainable policy actions, build resilience against shocks,safeguard macroeconomic and financial stability, and undertake structural reforms to unlock privatesector-led growth. Specifically for LIDCs, strengthening capacity to mobilize domestic resources andimplement growth-enhancing reforms is crucial, while, in parallel, donors should explore ways to mobilizemore development assistance. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS Despite a resilient startto the year, global growth is projected todeceleratefrom 3.3percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.1 percent in 2026. This is animprovement relative to the July WEO update but cumulatively 0.2 percentage pointbelow the October 2024 forecasts. The globaleconomy has beenresilient thus far,but strains areemerging. The first half of 2025 recorded relatively robust global growth. This, however, waslargely driven by temporary factors—including front-loading of trade andinvestment and inventory management strategies—rather than fundamentaleconomic strength. As these factors fade, activity is slowing and labor markets aresoftening, reflecting headwinds from protectionism and uncertainty. ForAdvanced Economies (AEs), growth is projected to be 1.6percent in 2025 and2026, against 1.8 percent in 2024, with the US slowing from 2.8 percent in 2024 to2.0 percent in 2025. Growth inAEs isprojected to slowsignificantly. ForEmerging and Developing Economies (EMDEs), growth is projected to moderatefrom 4.3 percent in 2024 to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 4.0 percent in 2026. Within thegroup there is considerable variation, however. Growth in the Middle East andCentral Asia is projected to accelerate from 2.6 percent in 2024 to 3.5 percent in2025; conversely, growth in 2025 is projected to decline from 3.5 percent to 1.8percent in emerging and developing Europe and from 5.3 percent to 5.2 percent in ForEMDEs,growth is alsoexpected tomoderate, with emerging and developing Asia.Inboth sub-Saharan Africa andLatin America andthe Caribbean, growth in 2025 is projected to remain stable at 4.1 percent and 2.4percent, respectively. This reflects differences in various factors, such as exposure tohigher tariffs and cuts in official aid, domestic economic strength and policyresponses, and impacts from subdued commodity demand and prices. large regionalvariations. Growth forLIDCsis projected at 4.4percentin2025—slightly above the 4.2percentreached in 2024—and at 5.0 percent in 2026. On top of trade disruption andelevated uncertainty, LIDCs must contend with high debt vulnerabilities, a dearth ofexternal financing flows, cuts to official aid, and, for some of them, the impact ofnew restrictions on immigration, as remittances are a significant source of incomefor them. The world’s poorest economies, including those suffering from prolongedconflict, are particularly at risk of seeing their growth momentum decelerate andtheir per capita income gap relative to advanced economies widen. LIDCsfaceadditionalchallenges,particularly thepoorest ones. A more fragmented international economic landscape adds to the challenges manycountries are facing in lifting medium-term growth prospects. In the absence ofdurable structural reforms, growth forecasts over the five-year WEO horizon remainmediocre. World output is projected to expand at an average annual pace of 3.2percent in 2027–30, a lackluster performance compared with the pre-pandemic(2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The decline is more pronounced for EMDEs,portending challenges to the pace of global income convergence. Medium-termgrowth prospectsremain weak. Global headline inflation is projected to decline to 4.2percent in 2025 and 3.7percent in 2026, from 5.8 percent in 2024. The overall path is virtually the same as inthe October 2024 WEO projections, but there are notable variations, with upwardrevisions in quite a few countries (e.g., Brazil, Mexico, United Kingdom, and UnitedStates) and downward revisions in much of the rest of world. In the United States,inflation is expected to pick up from the second half of 2025, as the impact of tariffsis no longer absorbed within supply chains and instead is passed on to consumers. Inflation isprojected todecline, withnotable variations. Prol