排放交易系统在减少排放方面有多有效？来自欧盟、新西兰和大韩民国的经验证据

11371 How Effective Are Emission TradingSystems in Reducing Emissions? Empirical Evidence from the EU, New Zealand,and the Republic of Korea Ze SongGal HochmanGovinda Timilsina Development EconomicsDevelopment Research GroupMay 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11371 Abstract Emission trading schemes are among the primary pricinginstruments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Currently,more than 35 emission trading schemes are in operationaround the world at multinational, national, and subna-tional levels. How effective these systems are in reducingemissions is a key empirical question. This study exam-ines the effectiveness of three large-scale emission tradingschemes implemented by the European Union, New Zea-land, and the Republic of Korea in reducing carbon dioxideemissions. The study employs a generalized synthetic con-trol method on data from 2005–20. The findings showthat the EU emission trading scheme led to a cumulative reduction of 21.3 percent in carbon dioxide emissions fromthe electricity sector and 15.6 lower total carbon dioxideemissions, relative to a scenario with no emission tradingscheme. In New Zealand, the emission trading scheme hadno statistically significant effect on total national carbondioxide emissions—largely because nearly half of NewZealand’s emissions come from agriculture, a sector notcovered by the country’s emission trading scheme.Theeffectiveness of Korea’s emission trading scheme varied sub-stantially across phases. Although initially it did not halt therise in emissions, it became a progressively strong driver ofdecarbonization over time. This paper is a product of the Development Research Group, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by theWorld Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions aroundthe world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authorsmay be contacted at gtimilsina@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. How Effective Are Emission Trading Systems in Reducing Emissions?Empirical Evidence from the EU, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea Ze Song, Gal Hochman, Govinda Timilsina1 Keywords:Climate change mitigation, Carbon pricing, Emission trading system, Empiricalevidence, Synthetic control technique, European Union, New Zealand, Republic of Korea JEL Classification:Q4, Q5, Q48, Q54 1.Introduction The emissions trading system (ETS) is one of the main market-based policy instrumentsemployed around the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). It aims to createeconomic incentives for reducing emissions by allowing participants to buy and sell emissionallowances. Under the ETS, emitters with relatively lower marginal costs of emission reductionreduce more emissions than are required and sell the excess reductions to emitters that have highermarginal costs of emission reductions, for which it would be expensive to meet their requiredreductions. As of 2024, 36 economies or jurisdictions have implemented ETSs at various levels—regional, national, and sub-national. These include one international or cross-border system (theEU ETS), 13 national systems, and 22 sub-national systems (at the city, state, or provincial level)(World Bank, 2024). The EU ETS, launched in 2005, is the oldest and only international (Europe-wide) ETS. Itcurrently covers around 10,000 installations across the energy and manufacturing sectors, as wellas air and maritime transportation. The EU ETS has evolved through several phases: Phase I (2005-2007), Phase II (2008-2012), Phase III (2013-2020), and Phase IV (2021-2030).2The NewZealand Emissions Trading System (NZ-ETS) was initiated in 2008. It covers a broad range ofsectorsincluding power,industry, buildings, transport, aviation,waste, and forestry.Theagriculture sector, which accounts for almost half of the national GHG emissions, is not part of theNZ-ETS. Different from the other two systems studied in this paper, the NZ-ETS makes the emitters liable upstream the stationary energy an