NBV增长强劲，超过了一季度净利下降

China Life (2628 HK) NBV surge a strong beat, outweighing 1Q net profit outweighing 1Q net profit dip China Lifereportedmixed1Q26results,with net profitdown32.3% YoY to RMB19.5bn,below our estimate of RMB20.4bn, mainlydue tofair value lossesfrom TPL equitiesamidequitymarket turbulence. Net asset valuemodestly grew0.5% from year-start toRMB598.3bn, supported by higherretained earnings. NBV surged 75.5% YoY in 1Q26,significantly beatingmarket and our estimates,reflectingcontinued progress inshiftingunderwriting towardlonger-duration and regular-paidproducts. Premiums from long-term new policiesreacheda record RMB85.7bn(+29.9% YoY), the highest since 2017.Within this, first-year regular premiums (FYRP)grew 41.4% YoY,withtheshareof 10yr+FYRP rising 4.4pct YoY. Participating FYRP accounted forover90%of total FYRPin1Q26,implyinga surge from 51.7% in 1Q25. Mgmt. highlightedin the callthat bothagency and bancassurance NBV marginsexpanded YoY in 1Q26, driven by improvedunderwritingmixandlowerguaranteed costs,with the agencyshowinga larger marginincrease than bancassurance. Onthe investment front, the insurer scaled upitsbondallocation in 1Q26, with the YTDadditionsexceeding thefull-year increase of2025, per Target Price(Previous TPUp/DownsideCurrent Price China InsuranceNika MA(852) 3900 0805nikama@cmbi.com.hk 1Q26 Key highlights: 1)NBVsurged75.5% YoY, a strong beat to market estimates.In 1Q26,bothagency and bancassurancedelivereddouble-digit YoYNBVincreasesaccording tomgmt., supported by strong new business salesandmargin expansion. FYRP rose41.4% YoY, a key driver for long-term first-year premium growth (+29.9%).Beyondrobustsales momentum, mgmt.notedthatthereasons forNBV margin expansionweretwofold:a)therollout of longer-durationproducts, andb)a risingmix of floating-yield, i.e. participating,policies, whoseFYRPshare surged to over90%(vs.1Q25: 2) YTD bond investment surpassed thetotal increase in2025.Oninvestmentfront, China Life scaled up itsbondallocation in 1Q26 to capture the periodic peakinlong-term yields. By2025, bonds accounted for 57.4% of totalinvestment assets,down 1.7pct YoY.With a steepening yield curve expected by mgmt., we see Auditor: Ernst & Young Related reports: 3)Life core solvency up 28.1pct from year-start.Life coresolvency ratiorose28.1pct from year-start to 156.87%,markinga notablereturn tothelevel of 2024(153.34%).Comprehensive solvency ratio increased 28.3pct from year-start to202.31%,surpassingthe 200%threshold.The improvementisprimarily attributableto the reclassification of bonds under amortized cost, which allows related assets tocapture fair value upside amid a prolonged low-interest rate environment, thereby 1.4Q net loss dragged by fair valuecontraction; DPS rose 31.7% ahead ofexpectations, Mar 27, 20262.4Q net profit could decline despitebetter capital market, Jan 27, 20253.3Q NPAT boostedby net fair valuegains;expect resilient full-year NBVupswing, 5 Nov, 20244.Strong lift in banca NBV margin;investmentincome may continue torebound in 2H24, Sep 2, 20245.Highest VNB growth in years; netprofit decline narrowed on track, May 2,2024 4)Equity exposureis expected to remain relatively stable in the near term,butwithroomforafutureincrease,according to mgmt.As ofFY25,stocksaccounted 5)Negative incometaxexpense liftednet profit.In 1Q26, China Liferecorded anegativeRMB608mnincome tax expense,astax-exemptrevenues exceededpre-tax income,permgmt.,resulting innocurrenttax payable.The reversal of deferredtax assets(DTA)under prudentmgmt.guidancecontributed to thisnegativetax 6.4Q net loss markedly narrowed; VNBgrew in low-teens despite revised EVassumptions, Apr 8, 2024 7.3Q NP dragged by investmentsetbacks; first-in-sector steady agentscale props up 2024 NBV, Oct 31, 2023 Valuation:Thestock istradingat 0.44x FY26E P/EV and1.0x FY26E P/B,with ayield of 3.6% (CMBI est).Weremainpositive on the prospect of an equity market reboundin 2Q26Eto driveanearnings upside,alongside continued improvementinreduced guaranteed cost ofliability(1Q26:below2.9%) and a balanced product mix.Maintain BUY, with our TP at HK$34 (fromHK$33),implying 0.53x FY26E P/EV. Key risks:1)intensified equity market volatilities; 2) a prolongedlow-interestrateenvironmentwith significant interest rate shocks; 3) slower-than-expected new Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, inwhole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his orher compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in thisreport.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issuedby The Hong Kong Securities and Futures