从按用户模式扩展到用户+使用模式

into user-plus-usage model Expanding from per-user model into user-plus- Target PriceUS$616.40(Previous TPUS$614.60)Up/Downside51.2%Current PriceUS$407.78 Microsoft reported (30 Apr BJT) 3QFY26 (June year-end) results: revenue wasUS$82.9bn, up 18.3% YoY (2QFY26: +16.7% YoY), 2% above both our forecastand Bloomberg consensus estimates, driven by better-than-expected revenuegeneration across all three business segments.During the period, operatingincome rose 20% YoY to US$38.4bn, 3%/4% ahead of our forecast/consensus,supported by beats in the Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) and MorePersonal Computing (MPC) segments. Azure and other cloud services revenuerose40% (or 39% on a constant-currency basis), whichexceeded previousguidance of 37-38%, and management guided for 39-40% growth in 4QFY26.Management highlighted a shift to a usage-based pricing model for GitHubCopilot, as it aligns pricingwith actual usage and costs, and expects all of thecurrent per-user business to gradually transition to a per-user-plus-usage model China Internet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkYe TAO, CFA (852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFAluwentao@cmbi.com.hk Shuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk Solid cloud revenue growth trajectory likely to sustain.Intelligent Cloud(IC) segment revenue grew 29.6% YoY in 3QFY26 to US$34.7bn (42% oftotal revenue), while Azure and other cloud services within the segmentdelivered 40% YoY revenue growth (2QFY26: 39%). Capex (includingfinanceleases)came in at US$31.9bn for 3QFY26(consensus:US$26.8bn), up 49% YoY, of which roughly two-thirdswerespent on short-lived assets (such as GPUs and CPUs) to fulfil demand. Managementstressed that supply constraints still persist, and expects the situation to Microsoft365 Copilot paid seats reached the 20mn milestone. Productivity and Business Processes (PBP) revenue was US$35.0bn in3QFY26, up 16.9% YoY (3QFY25: 10.4%; 2QFY26: 15.9%), accounting for42% of total revenue. Microsoft 365 commercial / consumer cloud revenueincreased by 15%/29%YoY on a constant-currency basis(2QFY26:14%/27%), aided by 6%/7% YoY growth in paid Microsoft 365 commercial OverallOPM expansion better than expected.In 3QFY26, overall GPMdeclined 1.1ppts YoY to 67.6%, owing to continued investments in AIinfrastructure and AI product usage. However, OPM came in at 46.3%, up0.8ppts YoY and ahead of consensus at 45.3%, driven by 1.9ppts/1.5pptsmargin expansion in PBP/ MPC, aided by improved operating leverage. Thiswas partly offset by a 1.8ppt YoY decline in IC segment OPM to 39.7% Source: FactSet Source: Company data,CMBIGM Source: Company data,CMBIGMNote: ccmeansconstant currency Changes in forecast and valuation Risks 1.Slower-than-expected margin expansion; Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the codeof conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s)covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed.This report is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation tobuy or sell any security or any interes