您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [招银国际]:1Q26结果:人工智能加速广告收入增长;提高FY26资本支出指导。 - 发现报告

1Q26结果:人工智能加速广告收入增长;提高FY26资本支出指导。

2026-05-04 Saiyi HE,Wentao LU,Ye TAO,Shuyin GUO 招银国际 梅斌
报告封面

growth; raise FY26 capexguidance 1Q26 results:AI accelerates ad revenuegrowth; raise FY26 capex guidance Target PriceUp/DownsideCurrent Price Meta reported 1Q26 results: total revenue was up by 33% YoY to US$55.0bn,largely in line with Bloomberg consensus; operating income grew by 30% YoYto US$22.9bn, 18% ahead of the consensus, mainly thanks to the strongoperating leverage. For 2Q26E,managementexpectstotal revenue to grow by22%-28% YoY to US$58-61bn, in line with the consensus of US$59.6bn.ManagementliftsFY26 capex guidance from US$115-135bn to US$125-145bn(+73-101% YoY), mainlyreflectingthehigher componentcosts and additionaldata centre investment, which raisestheconcernofcertain investorson theROIC and its impact on earnings. Overall, we lift our FY26-28E total revenue ChinaInternet Saiyi HE, CFA(852) 3916 1739hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hkWentao LU, CFA luwentao@cmbi.com.hk Ye TAO, CFA(852) 3850 5226franktao@cmbi.com.hkShuyin GUO(852) 3916 3716guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk AI accelerating ad revenuegrowth.Family of Apps (FoA) ad revenueincreased by 33% YoY to US$55.0bn in 1Q26 (4Q25/3Q25: +24%/26%YoY), fuelled by the AI-driven ad impression and pricing growth (+19% YoYand +12% YoY).FoA other revenue grew by74% YoY toUS$885mn in1Q26,driven by the strong growth of WhatsApp paid messaging andsubscriptions revenue.AI drove ad performance on several fronts: 1)engagement: ranking improvements drove 8% QoQ growth in total videotime spend on Facebook in 1Q26, the largest QoQ gains in four years; 2)monetization:enhancements to Latticeand GEM drove over 6% increase in Strive toachieve vision of personal superintelligence.Meta’s newmodel, Muse Spark, is a key steptoits vision ofpersonal superintelligence.The model leads in severalareasrelated to consumers’use cases,includingvisual understanding, health, shoppingandsocial contentetc. Since MuseSpark powering Meta AI’s response, Meta AI app hasconsistently beennear the top of theApp Store, and the company sawdouble-digit percent Raising FY26E capex guidance.Meta maintainsFY26E total expenseguidance unchanged atUS$162-169bn (+38-44% YoY) despite its layoffplan in May, asmanagementexpectstherestructuring costs to offset thedecline in employee compensation expenses.ManagementraisesFY26capex guidance from US$115-135bn to US$125-145bn (+73-101% YoY), Source: FactSet Business forecasts update and valuation Valuation We value Meta at US$880.0per share based on29x 2026E P/E. Our target PE multiple isa premium to the sector average (17x), reflecting Meta’s strong leadership in global socialmedia space and capability todrive long-term earnings growth. Average Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) allof the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this researchreport within 30 calendar days prior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. CMBIGM RatingsBUY : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 monthsHOLD: Stock with potentialreturn of +15% to-10% over next 12 monthsSELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 monthsNOT RATED: Stock is not rated byCMBIGM OUTPERFORM:Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsMARKET-PERFORM:Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12 monthsUNDERPERFORM:Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark over next 12months Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel: (852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB InternationalCapital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements.