欧洲的财政政策和劳动力市场结果：巴尔干地区不同吗？

Fiscal Policy and LaborMarket Outcomes in WP/26/88 2026MAY IMF Working Paper European Department Fiscal Policy and Labor Market Outcomes in Europe: Are the Balkans Different? Prepared by Serhan CevikandMaja Ivanovic Authorized for distribution byLuc Eyraud May2026 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit commentsand to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do Abstract The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy are central to both research and policymaking, yetrelatively little is known about how fiscal shocks impact men and women differently acrossdiverse labor market and institutional contexts. This paper provides the first comparativeanalysis of gender-specific responses to exogenous fiscal shocks in the Balkans relative to therest of Europe. Using a cross-country panel dataset and the local projection method, we tracethe dynamic effects of fiscal expansions and contractions on labor force participation,employment, and wage outcomes. The results reveal substantial regional variation and I.INTRODUCTION The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy remain central to both research and policymaking,particularly in Europe, where repeated cycles of stimulus and consolidation have profoundlyreshaped public finances and labor markets over the past two decades. While a substantialliterature examines the aggregate consequences of government spending and taxation, far less This gap is increasingly consequential. A growing body of work shows that macroeconomicpolicies interact with gendered labor market structures, household responsibilities, sectoralemployment patterns, and welfare institutions in ways that can amplify—ormitigate—existinginequalities. Importantly, fiscal policy does not operate in isolation: its effects unfold within pre-existing structural and institutional settings that shape how men and women adjust to Emerging evidence points to several channels through which fiscal policy can generate gender-differentiated effects. In many Balkan economies, high informality, weaker social insurancesystems, limited childcare provision, and narrow active labor market programs heighten women’s concentrated in low-wage and informal employment, experience more discontinuous labor forceattachment due to unpaid care responsibilities, and rely heavily on public services. In contrast,much of the rest of Europe benefits from broader childcare coverage, stronger social safety nets, Against this backdrop, this paper provides the first systematic cross-country analysis of thegender-specific effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in the Balkans relative to the rest of Europe.We construct a comprehensive panel of European economies and examine the dynamicresponses of labor force participation, total employment, and wage employment to fiscal shocks.Fiscal shocks are identified using two complementary approaches based on large discretionary Beyond average effects, we explore nonlinearities along two key dimensions: the state of theeconomy at the time of the shock and the level of public debt as a proxy for fiscal space. Thisframework enables us to assess whether gender-differentiated responses vary systematically Our empirical findings reveal substantial regional heterogeneity and pronounced genderasymmetries. Expansionary fiscal shocks do not uniformly translate into improved female labormarket outcomes. In the Balkans, stimulus episodes yield stronger and earlier gains for men,particularly in employment and wage employment, while women’s responses are slower and Contractionary shocks display notable state dependence. Negative effects on femaleemployment are most pronounced when consolidations occur during downturns, with larger andmore persistent responses in Balkan economies. Outside the Balkans, consolidationalso reduces tightening mainly limits job opportunities rather than causing sustained exits from the labor Nonlinear estimates reinforce these patterns. Contractionary shocks during recessions generatesubstantially stronger and more persistent declines in female employment than consolidationsimplemented in expansions. Differences across debt regimes are moremodest but indicate thatfiscal space conditions the intensity of labor market adjustment. These state-dependent effects We trace these gender disparities to structural factors and mechanisms. Women’s concentrationin public-facing and service-oriented sectors in the Balkans increases exposure to expenditure-based consolidations. Limited childcare and eldercare infrastructure constrains responsiveness to These findings carry important implications for macroeconomic stabilization and labor marketresilience. Fiscal policy does not operate in a gender-neutral environment, and even relativelyshort-lived and moderate effects can generate meaningful differences in labor market outcomesacross genders. From a welfare perspective, gender-differentiated resp