2024年夏季美国电网如何保障供电稳定

Paul Denholm,1Victor Duraes de Faria,1and Jason Frost2 1National Renewable Energy Laboratory2 U.S. Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 How the U.S. Power Grid Kept theLights on in Summer 2024 Paul Denholm,1Victor Duraes de Faria,1and Jason Frost2 1 National Renewable Energy Laboratory2 U.S. Department of Energy Suggested CitationDenholm, Paul, Victor Duraes de Faria, and Jason Frost. 2024.How the U.S. Power GridKept the Lights on in Summer 2024. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory.NREL/TP-6A40-91517.https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/91517.pdf. National Renewable Energy Laboratory15013 Denver West ParkwayGolden, CO 80401303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308 NOTICE This work was authored in part by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, operated by Alliance for SustainableEnergy, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under Contract No. DE-AC36-08GO28308. Fundingprovided by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Policy. The views expressed herein do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the DOE or the U.S. Government. This report is available at no cost from the National RenewableEnergy Laboratory (NREL) atwww.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are availablefree viawww.OSTI.gov. Cover Photos by Dennis Schroeder: (clockwise, left to right) NREL 51934, NREL 45897, NREL 42160, NREL 45891, NREL 48097,NREL 46526. Acknowledgments The authors are grateful to Billy Roberts, National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), formap design and to Emily Horvath and Madeline Geocaris (NREL) for editing. Thanks also toU.S. Department of Energy reviewers Sohum Pawar, J.P. Carvallo, Ryan Wiser, BahramBarazesh, Colin Cunliff, Mara Winn, Glenda Oskar, Michele Boyd, and Jennifer Downing aswell as NREL reviewers Mark Ruth and Gian Porro. List of Acronyms BTMbehind-the-meterCAISOCalifornia Independent System OperatorDOEU.S. Department of EnergyEIAEnergy Information AdministrationERCOTElectric Reliability Council of TexasGWgigawattISOindependent system operatorISO-NEISO New EnglandMISOMidcontinent Independent System OperatorMWmegawattNERCNorth American Electric Reliability CorporationNGnatural gasNPCCNortheast Power Coordinating CouncilPVphotovoltaicsSERCSoutheast Regional CouncilSPPSouthwest Power PoolSRASummer Reliability AssessmentWECCWestern Electricity Coordinating Council Table of Contents 1Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 12How Did They Do It?............................................................................................................................. 42.1ERCOT.......................................................................................................................................... 42.2Other Regions................................................................................................................................ 93The Growing Role of Solar and Storage During Summer Peaks................................................... 123.1Projected Solar and Storage Growth ........................................................................................... 123.2Achieving Resource Adequacy With a Diverse Portfolio........................................................... 13References ................................................................................................................................................ 14 List of Figures Figure 1. NERC risk assessment regions in the United States, highlighting five regions considered ashaving elevated risk in summer 2024....................................................................................... 2Figure 2. Maximum daily electricity demand (black) in ERCOT in summer 2024 was highest when peaktemperatures (blue) averaged over 100°F in August................................................................ 4Figure 3. Demand profile and average temperature on August 20, 2024, showing near-record peakdemand of more than 85 GW ................................................................................................... 5Figure 4. Generation resource mix on August 20, 2024, highlighting four impacts of solar on ERCOT’sability to achieve reliable operation ......................................................................................... 6Figure 5. Solar reduces the length of the net peak demand period, reducing the duration of storagerequired while also increasing the amount of “off-peak” energy available for storagecharging.................................................................................................................................... 7Figure 6. Cumulative solar and storage deployment in ERCOT shows significant growth since 2020 withfurther growth expected ...........................................................