汇川技术：近期回调后再度具备吸引力

Jay Huang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2631jay.huang@bernsteinsg.com Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A Weibin Liang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2666weibin.liang@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Dien Wang, Ph.D.+852 2123 2622dien.wang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 300124.CH 82.00 CNY(95.00OLD) Inovance: It's attractive again after the recent pull-back In 1Q26, Inovance’s revenue grew 13% YoY, below expectation (Exhibit 1), partly due toweakness in Chinese EV market and delayed product deliveries in the FA segment (Exhibit 3).However, FA new order growth accelerated to 40% YoY. Margins were also under pressure,especially in the EV segment (Exhibit 16), due to rising raw material prices. One-off items alsonegatively impacted company OP margin. With further accelerating FA demand in China (Exhibit 10), management expects the FAsegment to perform better in 2026. Inovance plans to increase capacity by 30% in 2Q26 toclear its order backlog. While the risk of further raw material price increases remains, costincreases for FA products have largely been passed through via price hikes earlier this year,though cost pass-through remains challenging for the EV business. Company’s full-yearguidance baked in this risk and sees 10-30% growth in revenue and in EPS. Inovance further elaborated its growth strategy in the AI era. In humanoid/intelligentrobotics, besides offering core components, Inovance will also develop solutions forindustrial applications. In FA segment, Inovance plans to integrate AI with its existingproducts to further expand its TAM. The headwind from EV business is mostly price-in and recovery in the segment is expectedtoward end of this year. Inovance is currently trading 1-std below its historical average(Exhibit 6, Exhibit 7). With a sustainable profit CAGR of 15-20% CAGR in the coming years,we believe current valuation is attractive and remain positive on the stock. Investment Implications Reiterate OP. We lowered PT to CNY82 (was CNY95) by applying a 24.0x EV/EBITDAmultiple to 1-yr fwd EBITDA est. of RMB9.0bn (was 30.0x to RMB8.5bn). PT date rolled toDec. 2026. DETAILS Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein analysis EXHIBIT 9:Inovance gross margin, operating margin, and attributable net margin trend Note: Siemens, ABB, Schneider are covered by Bernstein European Capital Goods teams, Delta is covered by Bernstein Asia Tech Hardware teams. INVT, Mitsubishi,Yaskawa and Veichi are not covered by Bernstein.Source: MIR Databank, Bernstein analysis APPENDIX - FINANCIAL FORECASTS BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A We use EV/EBITDA multiple as the primary valuation method. We set a RMB82 target price using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 24.0xagainst our 1-year forward-looking EBITDA estimates (from the PT date) of RMB 8971.6 million. We set the multiple referencingprevious cycles but adjust for secular or competitive trends that we believe are moving multiples higher or lower across multiplecycles. We use DCF as reference for the company's long-term intrinsic value. As we move along the different stages of a cycle, thetime-dependent target price may deviate from the DCF-implied value. RISKS Shenzhen Inovance Technolo-A The risks to our view on Inovance are mainly associated with macro economy, including industrial capex cycles, trade frictions, andcurrency. The downside risks to our view on Inovance include 1) weaker than expected automation demands in China, 2) weakeror slower than expected share gain in China in segments besides servo motor and VFD, 3) weaker than expected EV demands. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 forstocks listed on the U.S. and Canadian exchanges, versus the Bloomberg Europe Developed Markets Large and Mid Cap PriceReturn Index EUR (