海尔智家2026年第一季度业绩：一季度为低谷，后续将逐步复苏；市场表现

Haier Smart Home Co Ltd RatingMarket-Perform Price Target Haier 1Q26 Results: Q1 trough, sequential recovery ahead;Market-Perform Q1 was the cyclical trough with Q2 targeting breakeven and H2 delivering growth toachieve full-year ~5% revenue and profit guidance, though execution risk remainsgiven uncertain demand recovery and rising input costs.Revenue declined 6.9% andnet profit fell 15%, but operating profit ex-FX declined just 5% while operating profit ex-US grew 10%. North America faced blizzard disruptions (industry down 10%), China retaildeclined 6.2% as subsidy effects faded, and FX losses exceeded RMB 1 billion. Managementmaintained guidance with Q2 breakeven implying material H2 acceleration. China delivered profit growth despite high-single-digit revenue decline through costinitiatives and SG&A efficiency, while overseas ex-US showed strong momentum.ACgrew despite 13% industry decline, warehouse-to-consumer reached 68% of orders (+8ppYoY), and cost initiatives from March 2025 began delivering benefits. Overseas deliveredSouth Asia +17%, Southeast Asia +12%, Europe HVAC >20%, with profit margins improvingacross all regions except the US. North America's weather-driven weakness should reverseas deferred replacement demand materialises in Q2. Key catalysts include Q2 sequential improvement, US deferred demand, Chinastabilization signals, and commodity costs stabilizing (oil-linked increases visible inApril require selective price increases). Supply chain restructuring continues with Thailandproduction expansion, minimising tariff exposure, while interest expense reduction exceededRMB 280M in Q1 (full-year target >RMB 700M). Valuation prices in the recovery with limited upside cushion, though a rapid RMB 600Mbuyback (1.7% share count cut) signals confidence and adds ~2% EPS. Medium-termcatalysts include warehouse-to-consumer mix scaling above 75%, an overseas profitabilityinflection, and HVAC integration benefits. Risks skew to execution—Q2 could miss breakevenamid commodity pressure, China demand weakness, or rising competition. We maintainMarket Perform given limited visibility on the timing of a demand inflection. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXHIBIT 1:Haier Smart Home 1Q26 Performance Key Headwinds in Q1 •China retail market: –6.2%•US market: blizzards disrupted shipments; industry shipments –10% (Electrolux reported ~–10% in local currency revenue)•FX impact: >RMB 1B loss (mainly euro and CIS currencies) Shareholder Returns (as of late April) •Buyback executed: ~RMB 600M in ~1 month•A-share cancellation approved: 74.54M shares (~0.8% reduction)•New buyback plan: up to 81M shares (~0.87% reduction if fully executed)•Total expected share reduction in 2026: ~1.7% → estimated ~2% EPS accretion Management Stance •Full-year guidance maintained (~5% revenue and profit growth).•Q2 target: break even (revenue and profit flat YoY).•Sequential improvement expected versus Q1, but dependent on demand recovery and cost trends. 1) Q1 2026 Performance Overview Group Performance •Revenue: –6.9% YoY•Net profit: –15% YoY (improved vs. Q4 2025)•Operating profit (ex-FX): –5% YoY•Operating profit (ex-US market): +10% YoY Source: Company reports, Bernstein analysis Casarte Share by Category (share of category revenue) •Refrigerator: ~16–17%•Washing machine: ~13–14%•High-end air conditioner: >20%•Water heater: ~12–13% Profit Drivers in China •Cost initiatives launched in March 2025 began to show meaningful benefits in Q1 2026:•supplier consolidation and procurement optimization•process upgrades•product platform simplification•Digital marketing and digital inventory transformation (initiated in April 2025) reduced SG&A. Negative Factors / One-offs •FX loss >RMB 1B (euro and CIS currencies); Q1 2025 had sizeable FX gains, creating a tough comparison.•China demand remained weak; US blizzards delayed purchases.•Tariffs continued to affect results, though management noted the impact is smaller than in 2025. 2) Strategic Progress & Key Initiatives China: Warehouse-to-Consumer (“Warehouse-to-C”) Transformation •Paid-order share reached 68% in Q1 (+8 pp YoY). •Fulfillment efficiency improved, supporting faster delivery and better inventory deployment. Global Supply Chain & Cost Optimization •Large refrigerator production started in Thailand (April 2026).•Washing machine production planned to shift to the US by 2027.•China-based production for US exports continues to decline.•HVAC integration: self-manufacturing ratio for air conditioners increased +15 pp in one quarter.•Despite rising commodity costs (copper, oil derivatives), air-conditioner gross margin remained stable. HVAC Growth in Key Regions •China HVAC revenue: grew (vs. industry –13%)•North America HVAC revenue: >10% growth•Europe HVAC revenue: >20% growth Accelerated Shareholder Returns •Buyback: ~RMB 600M executed in ~1 month (Mar 27 to late April).•A-share cancellation: 74.54M shares (~0.8% reduction).•New buyback plan: up to 81M shares (~0.8