展望更新：战争的（石油）鼓声

US Economic Perspectives Outlook update: The (oil) drumbeat of war Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D.Chief US Economist+1-212-250-6161 Introduction Brett RyanSenior US Economist+1-212-250-6294 We entered 2026 with a constructive view on the economy.Our narrative was thatheadwinds fromthehistorictrade policy and tariff shock from 2025 werelikely tofade over the course of this year as tariff rates felland that growth tailwinds wereset to strengthen frommonetary and fiscal policy, financial conditions,robustproductivity and AI-related investment. Justin WeidnerEconomist+1-212-469-1679 Whilethese pillars of our outlookhave largelymaterialized as expected,theeconomy has been dealtanother adverse shock from a spike in oil pricesprecipitated by the war in Iran.Our baseline is thatas long as oil prices havepeaked and are on a slowdownwardtrajectoryover the coming months,theeconomyislikely to weather anothersubstantialshock relatively well.Indeed, theadjustmentsto our forecast are relatively modest:slightly weaker growth,marginallylower unemployment, and modestly higher inflation.Against thisbackdrop, we have removed our lone Fed rate cut from this yearand now see theFed on anindefinitehold near neutral. Amy YangEconomist+1-212-250-9959 Growth:Oil drag versusfiscal and FCI boost We have modestly lowered our growth forecast this year, with Q4/Q4 real GDPgrowth now projected at 2.3% (down from 2.4% previously). This downgradereflects the drag from higher oil prices (roughly-0.2pp) as well as weakerconsumer spending to start the yearcounterbalanced by continued tailwinds forgrowth(seeImpact of oil price shocks a "frack"-tion of what they once were,Intothe danger zone? Nonlinearities between oil prices and growthandHow big of anoil shock can the Big Beautiful Bill handle?). Thesetailwindsinclude:supportive financial conditions, fiscal policy (larger taxrefunds), robust productivity, anda continuedstrongpace ofAI investments. Ourgrowth forecast assumes oil prices broadly follow DB’s commodity team’sexpectations that Brent will remain elevated in the near-term before moderatingtowards $75-80 per barrel by year end. The most notable risk to this forecast is afurther escalation in Iran which leads toa more severeand protracted oil priceshock. Source:Laforte (2018), Deutsche Bank Research Source:FRB, ICE/BofA, Dow Jones, Optimal Blue LLC, Redfin, Zillow, BloombergFinance LP, Haver Analytics, Deutsche Bank Research Labor market:Growing confidence in stabilization Coming into the year, the biggest unknown inourforecast was whether the labormarket would stabilize. Although recent monthly payrolls prints have been veryvolatile, the labor market has shown increased evidence of stabilizing. Mostmeasures of labor market slack have been stable over the past 12-18months.Together with the recent decline in the unemployment rate to 4.3% confirms thatthemonthly breakeven payroll number has fallen to~0-50k jobs/month,consistent with recent Fed staff research (seehereandhere). Our baseline is that the unemployment rate will remain near or perhaps slightlybelow current levels (Q4 lowered by 0.1pp to 4.3%). Despite greater confidencein stabilization, the labor market remains in an uncomfortable equilibrium of lowhiring and low firing along with a relatively narrow base of sectors producinggrowth. Downside risks are therefore present, including from AIbeyond the near-term, even though we do not believe the latter has had a material adverse effect 16 April 2026US Economic Perspectives on the labor market thus far (see latestTracking AI's impact on the labor market(Apr. 2026)andWill AI drive unemployment higher this year? AI thinks not). Inflation:Another yearwell above target The disinflation path is murkier. Shelter disinflation should continue modestlyfurther, and core goods may reverse some tariff effects later this year, but "supercore" inflation has proven sticky. We have incorporated some upside into coreinflation thisyear from the oil price shock and now see core CPI and PCE at 2.7%and 2.9% (Q4/Q4), respectively. The latter isabout 0.1pp higher than our priorforecast and half a percentage point higher than our outlook projections lastNovember.Headline inflation has undergone the more substantial upwardrevisionin recent months, with CPI and PCE now anticipated to end the yeararound 3.25%. Following the upward revisions, risks are now more balanced for this year. A moresustainedoil price shock would impart upside risks,while further shelterdisinflation or a quicker reversal in tariff effects represent downsides. Further out,we continue to project core inflation will remain modestly (~0.25pp) above theFed’s target over the forecast horizon. Fiscal:Budget deficitsto stay wide on lesstariff revenue There have been several notable fiscal developments to start the year, all of whichare consistent with our expectation that the budget deficit is likely to widen morethananticipated.First,tariff revenues have likely peaked and look se