外国关税是改革的催化剂？潜在的发展红利（英）

Foreign Tariffs as Catalysts for Reform? The Potential Development Dividend Alessandro BarattieriAaditya MattooJose Signoret East Asia and Pacific Region &Development Research GroupApril 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11354 Abstract This note examines the implications of recent trade policychanges for developing countries. After the United States–China bilateral tariffs increased in 2018–19, the exports ofa few third countries increased but the development bene-fits were less significant. The tariffs that were more widelyapplied starting in 2025 could hurt developing economies,especially in sectors that are more exposed and face highertariffs. However, the costs of foreign protection would bemore than offset if countries responded with comprehensive reforms of their own trade policies. So far, some countrieshave concluded bilateral agreements and initiated limiteddomestic reforms. If tariff liberalization were not selectivebut extended to all trading partners, the gains for develop-ing countries would be more than three times larger thanthe cost of higher foreign tariffs. If reforms also addressedthe significant non-tariff barriers to trade in goods and ser-vices, the development benefits would be greatly magnified. This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, East Asia and Pacific Region and the Development ResearchGroup, Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its researchand make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are alsoposted on the Web at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at abarattieri@worldbank.org,amattoo@worldbank.org, and jsignoret@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Foreign Tariffs as Catalystsfor Reform?The Potential Development Dividend Alessandro Barattieri, Aaditya Mattoo and Jose Signoret1 Introduction The USannouncementof “reciprocal”tariffsin April 2025caused concern among policymakers indeveloping countriesand led to the conclusion of severalbilateral agreements. The recentruling ofthe US Supreme Court on February 20,2026,led to the removal of the reciprocal tariffsand wasfollowed bytheintroduction of new tariffs by the US administration.Policy makers are seeking tobetter understand the implications of recent developments and to devise an appropriate response. This note first briefly examines how the escalation of US-China trade tensions in 2018 affectedpatterns of trade and investment of developing countries. It then assessesdevelopingcountries’exposureto any new broad-based tariffsandthe implications ofdifferenttrade policy responses–an assessment that could help countries take more informed positions in discussions with theirtrading partners. Finally, the note outlines the reform opportunities presented bythese changes inthe trade policy environment. This note makesthree main points: 1)Somedevelopingcountries havebenefitted from the(“China-plus-one”) diversion in tradefollowing the US-China trade tensions since2018, but the benefits should not beexaggerated. The domestic content in incrementalexportswas relatively low, and thereforethe development impactwas limited. Thatexperience shouldmoderatethe temptation torely on opportunities created byhigh bilateral US-China tariffs. 2)The implementation ofUS tariffscouldhave significantconsequences in thenear term,especially because severaldevelopingeconomiesrely significantly on the US market. Butthe eventual costs should not be exaggerated.Exposureto the US marketmeasured interms of the domestic value added in exports, whichis whatmatters for the GDP impact, islower than in terms of gross exports. The tariffs being imposed on most major exportersarenot very different,and therefore no single exporteris likely tosuffer a significant competitivedisadvantage. Furthermore,theshift in exports away from the US to other lower-tariffdestinations will limit the negative impact on exports and outputin the medium term. 3)This crisis is an opportunity fordevelopingco