新经济增长：走向蓝图（英）

I N S I G H TR E P O R TA P R I L2 0 2 6 Contents Executive summary3 Introduction5 1Defining the new economy6 2Enabling growth in the new economy7 2.1Technology, productivity and human capital82.2Global cooperation and domestic capacity102.3Business environment and the role of government112.4Sustainability and economic policy12 3Anticipating growth in the new economy13 3.1The shifting geography of growth143.2Industries in the new economy153.3Navigating the impacts of the new economy173.4Unlocking faster growth193.5Mapping sources of business growth21 Contributors24 Endnotes25 Disclaimer This document is published by theWorld Economic Forum as a contributionto a project, insight area or interaction.The findings, interpretations andconclusions expressed herein are a resultof a collaborative process facilitated andendorsed by the World Economic Forumbut whose results do not necessarilyrepresent the views of the World EconomicForum, nor the entirety of its Members,Partners or other stakeholders. ©2026 World Economic Forum. All rightsreserved. No part of this publication maybe reproduced or transmitted in any formor by any means, including photocopyingand recording, or by any informationstorage and retrieval system. Executive summary The new economy calls for a new agileblueprint for growth. A convergence of deep structural transformations– from the acceleration of AI, heightenedgeostrategic competition and record levels ofdebt to demographic shifts and rebalancingof environmental and societal priorities – isshaping the contours of the new economy. that may enable expansion of economicopportunity and resilience. How governmentsand businesses balance global engagementwith the strengthening of domestic capacityand navigate betweenself-relianceandglobalintegrationstrategies will shape the globalgeoeconomic and growth landscapes. In the meantime, a sustained slowdown of growthand deepening economic divides are calling intoquestion growth models across advanced andemerging economies alike. Geopolitical rifts,including the recent supply disruption in the Straitof Hormuz, threaten to cause further economicscarring and heighten uncertainty about the futuretrajectory of growth and prosperity across regions. –Business environment and the role ofgovernment: Key opportunities lie in “no-regret”moves focused on reinforcing the fundamentalsof economic policy – including credibleinstitutions, high-quality infrastructure andmacroeconomic stability – and strengtheningmultistakeholder alignment. How decision-makers navigate the dilemmas around therole of government (“small” vs “bold”government) and rising public debt amidslower growth (fiscal prudence vs financialrepression) will shape the trajectory of growth. Taken together, these forces create new challengesand trade-offs – but also opportunities – aroundeconomic growth. The winners in the new economywill be those who understand competing threatsand opportunities and build agile growthpathways, balancing reinvention with long-termthinking and a focus on the fundamentals. –Sustainability and economic policy: Focusingon the economic and societal benefits of greentransition strategies is essential to unlockinglong-term prosperity and resilience. Meanwhile,critical dilemmas around how to manage thecosts and trade-offs of greener growth persist,with decision-makers navigating a range ofinvestment-led and cost-led strategies. Building on the outcomes of dialogues held aspart of the World Economic Forum’s Future ofGrowth Initiative between 2024 and 2026, thispaper summarizes a set of “no-regret” moves anddilemmas that decision-makers navigate in theircontinuing efforts to grow in the new economy.The report uses simplified dilemmas that shouldbe interpreted as a range, while recognizing thateffective policy-making often blends both sides.These are structured across four key areas ofeconomic policy: Anticipating growthin the new economy The insights from the latest World Economic Forum’ssurvey of 11,000 business executives globally,together with the latest International MonetaryFund (IMF) projections, provide a snapshot into keydrivers, barriers and opportunities for acceleratinggrowth by 2030. Although the outlook for the globaleconomy is subject to heightened uncertainty andpotential revisions amid deepening geopolitical rifts,business and other stakeholder expectations canprovide early insight to inform the elaboration ofnational blueprints for growth in the new economy. –Technology, productivity and human capital:Sustained growth in the new economy isanchored in “no-regret” moves that strengthenproductivity and human capital as technologyand knowledge become central to valuecreation. In the meantime, governmentsand businesses navigate between differentapproaches to translating innovation intonew sources of growth (competition vscoordination) and ensuring its benefits arewidely shared (mobility vs redistribution). Growth will continue to shift,with middle-i