全球日本：日本汽车——曾经辉煌的全球化先驱，如今具有独特优势的选择性领导者

Global Japan: Japan Autos – Once glorious pioneers ofglobalization, now selective leaders with distinctive strengths Japanese companies are entering a new phase of global relevance, leveraging superiorquality and innovation, increasingly relevant international brand propositions, and broadbased international earnings growth platforms. In this series, we identify Japan’s F&B,Pharma, Autos, Semiconductor, Gaming, and Robotics companies which are best placed toexcel on the global stage delivering sustainable superior growth. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com The longstanding global expansion of Japanese automakers:The history of Japaneseautomakers’ global expansion is extensive. Their exports began in the 1950s andaccelerated in the 1970s. In the 1980s, rising US-Japan trade frictions after the oil shocksled automakers to shift from exports to local production. Japanese auto parts suppliersexpanded overseas in a follow-the-OEM manner, supported by long-term relationshipswith automakers. As a result of decades-long globalization, Japanese automakers operatemanufacturing plants in roughly 40 territories across ~170 locations worldwide, whilesupplier networks have evolved into extensive global footprints. Chinese automakers areexpanding abroad along a comparable trajectory, intensifying global competition. Seunghyeok Kim+81 3 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com Japanese automakers losing ground overall while disparities widen:Japaneseautomakers’ global market share has declined from a peak of 37% in 1991 to 26% in 2025,with much of the lost share captured by Chinese automakers, while disparities amongJapanese automakers are widening. While traditional large players such as Nissan andHonda lose ground, Toyota and Suzuki stand out by expanding sales and share: Toyotathrough balanced regional exposure and a strong HEV-focused lineup, and Suzuki throughits leadership in India. Both are also expanding in Africa, positioning Toyota Tsusho tobenefit from longer-term growth. Japanese auto parts suppliers facing challenges:Japanese auto parts suppliersexpanded overseas with automakers to build local sourcing and production bases, creatinga multilayered global supply chain. Today, this model is increasingly under pressure. InChina, as Japanese automakers deepen collaboration with local partners and rely on localsupply chains, competition with local suppliers has intensified, putting downward pressureon profitability. Reflecting this trend, the average operating profit margin of Toyota suppliersin China declined from a peak of ~8% to ~4% over the past decade. Should a similarsubstitution trend repeat in ASEAN, the most profitable region for suppliers, the longer-term earnings outlook for these suppliers could likewise become less favorable. Meanwhile,automakers such as Toyota appear to be increasing procurement from local suppliers tospur Japanese suppliers’ competitiveness, testing their ability to catch up. Increasing selectivity amid intensifying global competition:As global competition inthe global auto market intensifies and performance divergence is widening, we see greaterneed to be selective within the Japan Autos & Auto Parts sector. From this perspective,we strongly favorToyota, which maintains resilient market share across regions,Suzuki,which leverages its dominant position in India while expanding across the Global South, andToyota Tsusho, which supports both automakers’ overseas growth across the automotivevalue chain and is well positioned to capture long-term structural upside. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The history of Japanese automakers’ global expansion is long, with overseas markets having consistently served as their primarygrowth driver. However, the recent emergence of Chinese automakers, led by rapid advancements in BEV competitiveness,has intensified global competition across these markets, widening performance disparities among automakers. Against thisbackdrop, we believe that a more selective approach is increasingly necessary within the Japan Autos & Auto Parts sector. Even amid this challenging environment, Toyota continues to maintain resilient market share across multiple global regions,supported by its dominant share in the HEV market of ~40%, while Suzuki holds a high market share of ~35% in India and issteadily expanding its presence in Africa. Toyota Tsusho supports the overseas expansion of both automakers across multipleaspects of the automotive supply chain, from upstream to downstream. By contrast, other Japanese automakers are graduallylosing their presence in global markets, and continued deterioration in fundamentals warrants closer attention. For auto partssuppliers, profitability in China is coming under pressure as automakers increasingly adopt local suppliers, raising concerns overwhether similar substitution dynamics could eventually spread to high-m