宏观周报：上游上行，下游回暖
中观总览 上游：本周上游原材料行业整体上行。钢铁社会库存持续下降，价格上行。有色金属方面，铜价持续上行。能源化工方面，国际油价明显回落。煤炭市场稳中偏强，动力煤港口价格走强，炼焦煤受补库需求推动小幅上行。 中游：本周中观制造业持续分化。汽车半钢胎、全钢胎开工回落；船舶制造业出口订单上行；化工制造方面，PX和聚酯的开工维持低位，PTA开工小幅上行；建材制造环比小幅回暖。 下游：本周下游消费市场整体回暖。服务消费方面，旅游、餐饮及电影票房等表现稳健。商品消费领域，汽车终端受高油价与观望情绪影响，传统燃油车销售仍显疲软，新能源车依靠降价及新品拉动维持一定韧性；食品饮料、日用品等必选消费保持平稳，线上实物零售增速略有回升。本周商品房销售整体呈现回暖态势。一线城市改善最为显著，低基数效应下新房成交同比增幅扩大；二线城市亦回升至正增长区间，三线城市降幅有所收窄但整体仍弱，城市间分化依然突出。 细分行业 大农业：玉米、棉花、棕榈油价格回升；苹果、淀粉库存持续去库。 能源：国际原油价格小幅回升，LNG价格回升。 采矿业：有色价格方面，锌和铜上行，其余小幅震荡。有色库存方面，铜、铅和铝去库；黑色价格方面，纯碱、热卷和螺纹上行。黑色库存方面，螺纹去库，焦煤库存上行。 化工：苯乙烯、聚乙烯和甲醇价格回落；尿素和MTO持续去库。 基建：混凝土、水泥价格回落；混凝土产能上行，水泥供给上行。 地产：本期重点监控城市中，一线城市北上广深新房销售套数继续上行。杭州、南京、成都、西安、福州新房销售持续改善。 物流运输：美西航线指数持续上行。国际航班班次上行，国内航班班次维持回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突。 目录 一、中观总览............................................................................................................................................4二、行业总览............................................................................................................................................52.1生产行业............................................................................................................................................................................52.2服务行业............................................................................................................................................................................6三、行业定价............................................................................................................................................6四、细分行业跟踪....................................................................................................................................104.1广义农业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.2化工行业..........................................................................................................................................................................104.3有色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.4黑色行业..........................................................................................................................................................................114.5基建行业..........................................................................................................................................................................124.6物流运输..........................................................................................................................................................................134.7汽车制造业......................................................................................................................................................................144.8地产行业..........................................................................................................................................................................14 图表 图1：全社会用电量....................................................................................................................................................................4图2：GDP分产业........................................................................................................................................................................4图3：通胀....................................................................................................................................................................................4图4：PMI....................................................................................................................................................................................4图5：生产行业PPI......................................................................................................................................................................5图6：生产行业工业增加值同比................................................................................................................................................5图7：纺织市场景气指数............................................................................................................................................................6图8：上海出口集装箱结算运价指数........................................................................................................................................6图9：邮政数据............................................................................................................................................................................6图10：社会消费品零售同比......................................................................................................................................................6图11：行业市场定价..................................................................................................................................................................
