行业周刊：天然橡胶

GTJA Futures Research InstituteGAOLinlin（Analyst）Advisory Code : Z0002332 Industry News Industry News 1.【Thailand’s Combined Exports of Natural Rubber & Mixture Rubber Dropped 4.3% YoY in Q1】 Latest data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Thailand’s total exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) reached 678,000tons, down 15% year-on-year. Breakdown: total standard rubber exports stood at 357,000 tons, down 23% YoY; ribbed smoked sheet exportshit 117,000 tons, up 9% YoY; latex exports amounted to 198,000 tons, down 10% YoY. In Q1, Thailand’s natural rubber exports to China totaled 269,000 tons, a 28% year-on-year decline. In detail: standard rubber exports to Chinawere 148,000 tons, down 36% YoY; ribbed smoked sheet exports to China were 41,000 tons, up 5% YoY; latex exports to China came in at Thailand’s total mixture rubber exports registered 493,000 tons in the quarter, rising 16% YoY, among which mixture rubber exports to Chinareached 492,000 tons, up 17% YoY. Overall, Thailand’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubbertotalled1.171 million tons in Q1, falling 4.3% YoY; combined shipments to China 2.【EU Passenger Car Sales Rise 4% Year-on-Year in Q1】 According to the latest data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), EU passenger car sales surged12.5%year-on-year to 1.16 million units in March 2026. Driven by robust sales in March, cumulative Q1 deliveries climbed 4% year-on-year to 2.82 In the first quarter, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) held a 19.4% market share in the EU, up from 15.2% in the same periodlast year. Meanwhile,plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) continued to gain steady traction, highlighting the significance of a technology-neutral Industry News 3.【Vietnam’s Combined Exports of Natural Rubber and Mixture Rubber Rose 6.3% YoY in Q1】 Latest data shows that in the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s total natural rubber exports reached 138,000 tons, a year-on-yeardecrease of 1.4% compared with 140,000 tons in the same period last year. In detail, standard rubber exports stood at 68,000tons,down 8% YoY. Specifically, SVR10 fell 13% to 21,000 tons; SVR3L dropped 12% to 23,000 tons; while SVRCV60 climbed 31% to 17,000 Vietnam’s total mixture rubber exportstotalled265,000 tons in Q1, up 11% year-on-year from 239,000 tons a year earlier. By grade,mixture SVR3L exports hit 68,000 tons (+28% YoY); mixture SVR10 exports were 194,000 tons (+6% YoY); mixture RSS3 exports cameto 3,100 tons (-3% YoY). In the first quarter, Vietnam’s natural rubber exports to Chinatotalled30,000 tons, down 23% YoY from 39,000 tons. Vietnam’smixture rubber shipments to China reached 265,000 tons, an 11% year-on-year increase versus 239,000 tons last year, includingmixture SVR3L at 68,000 tons (+28% YoY), mixture SVR10 at 194,000 tons (+6% YoY), and mixture RSS3 at 2,800 tons (-3% YoY). Overall, Vietnam’s combined exports of natural rubber and mixture rubber reached 403,000 tons in Q1, rising 6.3% YoY from 379,000tons; total combined exports to China stood at 295,000 tons, up 6.1% year-on-year from 278,000 tons. Market trends Futures Prices ➢Major overseas producing regions have not yet entered full-scale tapping, resulting in limited overall latex output.Market speculation over regional drought and El Niño has intensified, driving a broad rally in domestic and overseas Basis & Calendar Spread Other Spreads: Inter-Commodity/Inter-Market Spreads ➢The price spreads between RU-BR and RU-JPX RSS3 increased, while the spreads between RU-NR and NR-SGX Other Spreads: Spot(not deliverable)-Future ➢Imported rubber offers moved higher this week. Traders rolledpositions across contract months, while bullish arbitragepositions increased. Downstream buyers remained on the ➢Futures maintained a firm and volatile trend, and spot pricesedged up. Downstream purchasing sentiment stayedsubdued, with participants only making moderate rigid- Other Spreads: Light and DarkColored ➢The price spread of SCRWF-Thai mixture rubber widened, and the price spread of 3L-Thai mixture rubberwidened. Price of Substitutes: BR & SBR ➢During the period, the price of butadiene, the key raw material,continued to decline, easing cost pressures. However, theproduction margins of butadiene rubber failed to turn fully positive, ➢Manufacturers successively cut ex-factory prices for butadienerubber, yet market sales remained in a price inversion state.Market participants showed low willingness to conclude new ➢On the demand side, downstream end-users were reluctant toenter the market, only making small-volume purchases at Capital TrendsOpen Interests/ Warehouse Receipts: RU Supply & Demand Data Supply: Precipitation ➢Rainfall is expected to rise generally across major rubber-producing regions at home and abroad. Supply: Temperature ➢Temperatures in domestic and overseas producing areas are expected to peak and then decline. Supply: Raw material prices ➢Weather