董事总经理书面声明：董事总经理的书面声明

April 2026 The world faces the spillovers from the war in the Middle East. In addition to the human toll, its economiceffects are global and uneven, once again hitting the poorest and most vulnerable countries the hardest.This comes at a time when policy space has been eroded and geopolitical tensions have been increasing.Spillovers to Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) will transmit through supply disruptions, highercommodity prices, second-round effects on inflation and expectations, tighter global financial conditions,exchange rate pressures, and reduced remittances from members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).The appropriate policy response depends on how the shock propagates through the domestic economy, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND RISKS The global economy hasdemonstratedresilience through repeated shocks,including from ongoing wars and conflicts, and elevated uncertainty. It now faces amajor new test. The war in the Middle East has already caused damage to criticalinfrastructure and disrupted transport, affecting trade and energy, and poses aserious threat to the global economy. Fuel and fertilizer prices could remain high for The resilience ofthe global Global growth willslow and inflation The outlook is highly uncertain, but even with a relatively swift normalization,growth will slow and inflation will increase. Under our reference forecast—in whichdisruptions fade by mid-2026—global growth is projected at 3.1 percent in 2026 the January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the forecast is revised down by0.2 percentage point for 2026 and that for 2027 is unchanged, reflecting disruptionsfrom the conflict in the Middle East, partly offset by continued tailwinds, including Growth in AEs isprojected to Under the reference forecast,Advanced Economies (AEs) growth is projectedto be1.8 percent in 2026 and 1.7 percent in 2027, compared with 1.9 percent in 2025. Thisis mainly due to positive terms of trade effects in the United States and stronger Growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs)under thereference forecast is projected to fall from 4.4 percent in 2025 to 3.9 percent in 2026and 4.2 percent in 2027, with notable regional divergence. Growth in the MiddleEast and Central Asia is expected to drop sharply from 3.6 percent in 2025 to 1.9percent in 2026, before recovering to 4.6 percent in 2027, as the region experiencesthe most direct impact of the conflict and the expected subsequent rebound.Relative to 2025, growth in 2026 is projected to decline from 5.5 percent to 4.9 ForEMDEs,growth is alsoexpected tomoderate, with Growthin low-incomeanddevelopingcountries(LIDCs)is revised downward by0.3percentage points to 4.8 percent in 2026 and 4.9 percent in 2027 under thereference forecast. The growth outlook has become more fragile and risks are rising,including from higher inflation. The conflict is expected to disproportionately affectthese economies, particularly those relying on imported food and fuel and havinglimited buffers and constrained policy space. Remittance inflows may weaken—particularly in countries with strong links to GCC economies—while disruptions to LIDCsfaceadditionalchallenges,particularly the A more fragmented international economic landscapecompoundedbyrisinggeopolitical risk continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects. In theabsence of sustained structural reforms, global growth is expected to remainmodest. Over the medium term, world output is projected to expand at an averageannual rate of 3.1 percent in 2028-31, well below the pre-pandemic (2000–19) Medium-termgrowth prospects Global headline inflationunder the reference forecastis projected topause itsdecline and rise to 4.4 percent in 2026 before declining to 3.7 percent in 2027. Thisis a 0.7 percentage point revision relative to October 2025. However, inflationdynamics remain uneven across countries, with services inflation still persistent in Global inflation isprojected totemporarily rise Given the fluidity of the situation, we also consider scenarios in which the conflict isprolonged or escalates. Under a severe scenario, the impact would be significantlylarger: global growth would be cut to only about 2 percent in 2026, while headline Risks to the outlookare firmlyonthe downside,most notably those related to amore protracted conflict in the Middle East. Geopolitical tensions could worsen—pushing the global economy toward more severe outcomes—or domestic policystrains could erupt. Trade-related disputes could also flare up. A reevaluation ofprofit expectations regarding AI could lead to a decline in investment and trigger anabrupt correction in financial markets. Larger fiscal deficits and increasing publicdebt, starting from a position where fiscal buffers are already eroded, could put DownsideRisksdominate the POLICY PRIORITIES Strongfundamentals and In a world withunusuallyhigh uncertaintyandmultipleshocks, fundamentalsmatterand policy agility is critical. Countries that pair