空间太阳能研究报告

S PA C E S O L A R N O V E M B E R2 0 2 5 D U B A I F U T U R E . A E Recommended Citation TABLE OF CONTENTS CONCLUSION33EXECUTIVE SUMMARY5ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS34INTRODUCTION6REFERENCES35ABOUT THE DUBAI FUTURE FOUNDATION382135674THE PROMISE OF SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER8WHY SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER IS GAINING MOMENTUM NOW13THE INTERNATIONAL LANDSCAPE OF SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER TODAY22THE CRITICAL PATH TO COMMERCIALISATION OF SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER28KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR POLICYMAKERS ONSPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER31SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER TECHNOLOGIES TODAY16 ExecutiveSummary Space-based solar power (SBSP) – the concept of capturingsolar power in space and transmitting it wirelessly back to Earth– has gained the attention of governments around the world.It is a potential solution to meet future global energy needs, andthe European Space Agency notes that a single solar satellite couldgenerate approximately 2 GW of uninterrupted power, equivalent to aconventional nuclear power plant.1 Several countries and regions, are already exploring future SBSPto meet increasing global energy needs. If technological research,development, and demonstrations proceed as planned not only inEurope but also by China, Japan, the United Kingdom, Europe, and theUnited States, along with private sector players, kilowatt-scale orbitaldemonstrations (China, Japan, and the United States) will be a realitywithin five years (2025–2030), megawatt-scale pilot plants within10 years (2030–2035), and the first commercial gigawatt-scale powersatellites within 15–25 years (2040–2050). SBSP consists of five core technologies: launch systems, on-orbitassembly, solar power capture, power transmission, and groundreceiving stations. With advances in artificial intelligence, solar paneltechnologies, materials science, reusable rockets, and wireless powertransfer, SBSP is likely to become a part of our near future. This report examines the current state of SBSP technology andits potential as a solution to meet growing global energy demandswhile supporting decarbonisation commitments. In addition toinvestigating the ‘why’ of SBSP, we carried out interviews to unpackthe technological readiness of key SBSP components, evaluate theinternational landscape of government policies and initiatives, and takeinto account key considerations for policymakers as they explore thepotential of this future technology. With industries becoming increasingly energy-intensive, the realisationof SBSP pilot plants in orbit will mark a significant step towardsaccess to abundant and clean energy. This will likely shift the entireenergy landscape. Introductionto Space-BasedSolar Power 1 The global energy race is accelerating as countries around the worldramp up efforts to identify scalable energy sources. Because of volatileenergy markets, rapidly growing energy-intensive industries, andnet-zero commitments (see Box 1), policymakers have realised thatexisting energy sources are both economically and environmentallyunsustainable. Although initial optimism for alternative energy sources –such as geothermal, hydropower, nuclear, solar photovoltaics (PVs) andwind energy – generated significant investment, it is now clear that suchsources cannot yet respond to large-scale energy needs as they facechallenges related to scalability, storage, and transmission.2 BOX 1Decarbonisation with 90% coming from renewable sources.While this pathway includes scaling up ofsolar and wind capacity, currently accountingfor around 10% of global electricitygeneration, these sources (combined withbiofuels, geothermal, and hydropower) areexpected to meet only two-thirds of totalelectricity needs. As a result, alternativelarge-scale energy solutions such as SBSPhave gained attention as credible solutionsfor global decarbonisation.4 A core motivation driving the momentumbehind SBSP initiatives is the global policyfocus on decarbonisation and net zerogoals. As the energy sector is the largestcontributor to global emissions, it is widelyconsidered to be the most urgently in need ofdecarbonisation.3In this context, the globallyaccepted pathway to decarbonisation isthrough the gradual electrification of energyuse and a transition to 100% green electricitysources. Between today and 2050, globalelectricity demand is expected to tripleto approximately 70,000 TWh annually, Space-based solar power (SBSP) – the concept of collecting solar powerin space and transmitting it wirelessly back to Earth – has gained theattention of governments around the world as a potential solution tomeet future global energy needs. Although ambitious, the concept is anapplication and scaling of existing technologies and does not require anyscientific breakthroughs.5Indeed, the United States’ National Aeronauticsand Space Administration (NASA) first explored SBSP in 1970 and foundthat, although prohibitively expensive, it was technologically feasible eventhen.6Recent advances in technology leading to cheaper launches7haveimproved