随着一个强劲的开端变得糟糕，杠杆金融市场的下一步是什么？

Q1 2026 As a Strong Start Turns Sour,What’s Next for the LeveragedFinance Market? In This Report Analysis of Q1 Trends in LeveragedFinance INVESTMENT BANKING Highlights, Analysis, and ResultsFrom William Blair’s QuarterlyLeveraged Finance Lender Survey Leveraged Finance Newsletter As a Strong Start Turns Sour, What’s Next for theLeveraged Finance Market? rebounding 57% from the priorquarter but trailing the start of 2025by 23%. The year opened with strongmomentum, as January ranked amongthe most active months since 2022. Asthe quarter progressed, Februaryvolume fell by 56% followed by amodest rebound in March. Despite thehighly volatile environment, Q1’s totalvolume was only 5% below theaverage of the last two years and 10%above the average quarterly levelsince 2021. Including repricings andextensions, first-quarter total activityfinished at $241.0 billion, a decreaseof 32% from the same period lastyear, as secondary market weaknessand widening spreads quietedopportunistic activity for much ofthe quarter.1 In contrast with the record levels ofrefinancing and repricing activity inthe last two years, the first quarterwas highlighted by an increase inM&A-related activity. Total volumerelated to M&A activity was $51.2billion in Q1, representing the highestlevel in four years. This quarter wasalso the first instance in which morethan 45% of total volume was tied toM&A activity since the third quarterof 2022. While the uptick in M&Avolume is a welcome sign, themultiyear high of this quarter wasconcentrated in five megadeals thataccounted for more than 40% of allM&A-related activity.2Despite thetop-heavy quarter, hope remains thatthe positive momentum drives asustained return of M&A transactionsfor the rest of the year. For a second consecutiveyear, credit markets began2026 with a strongshowing in January, only tosee conditions worsen duringthe quarter amid newfoundmarket volatility Following a solid run of issuance in2025 despite persistent concernsabout tariffs and other macroeconomicfactors, expectations for the leveragedfinance market were high heading into2026. January provided a strong start,but hopes for a banner year weretempered as multiple new factorstriggered a spike in volatility acrossglobal markets. Concerns aboutAI-driven disruptions, particularly inthe software sector, prompted retailinvestor outflows from the creditmarkets, as well as a reevaluation ofunderwriting standards and how toprice risk by investors. In addition,geopolitical risks and associatedenergy volatility as a result of the warin Iran added to market concerns. Howthese factors play out in the comingmonths, and the ability of bothborrowers and investors to managethese newfound risks, will likelyinfluence whether markets canrecover for the rest of the year. Borrower-Friendly Conditions Wane Amid Market Volatility Each quarter, we ask middle-market lenders to rate overall conditions in theleveraged finance market on a scale of 1 to 5, with 5 being the most borrower-friendly conceivable. The index decreased to 3.1, sinking to two-year lows as themarket shifted to a more risk-off stance. U.S. institutional loan volume totaled$111.3 billion in the first quarter, Opportunistic refinancing andrepricing remained a meaningfulcontributor to activity, with refinancingvolume totaling $41.6 billion. Whiledown 41% from Q1 2025, levels wereclosely in line with the quarterlyaverage of $40.5 billion over the lastfour years. Nearly half of that volumecame in January, before marketconditions soured amid the softwaresell-off and heightened geopoliticaltensions. This dynamic was even morepronounced in regard to repricings,with $108.2 billion of activity inJanuary evaporating to $5.8 billion inFebruary and zero in March. Dividendrecapitalization volume was $13.7billion during the quarter, well belowthe two-year average of approximately$20 billion.3 AI Risks Play Spoiler highlighted that AI-related risks havebecome a standard part of allunderwriting and a point of heighteneddue diligence that may be binary inevaluating a particular investment.Softer sentiment in the technologysector has shifted attention towardother industry verticals, with lendersindicating a more aggressive approachin aerospace and defense, healthcare,industrial and manufacturing, anddistribution. Risk of AI disrupting the businessmodels of traditional softwarecompanies dominated headlines in thefirst quarter. These concerns started inthe public equity markets but soonmanifested within the credit marketsgiven the significant investment insoftware companies in recent years.Many publicly traded businessdevelopment companies (BDCs) sawtheir stock prices trade downsignificantly, and non-traded BDCsreceived record levels of redemptionrequests, which are generally cappedon a quarterly basis. The level ofrequests during the quarter led somemanagers to limit redemptions inexcess of the cap or implementbespoke solutions in order to raiseenough liquidity to meet requests infull.