中东欧破产：表面稳定，表面脆弱，未来风险上升

CEE Insolvencies: Stability on the Surface, Fragility BeneathandRising Risks Ahead Coface study highlights growing fragmentation across Central and EasternEurope and a challenging outlook for companies Paris,April21st, 2026:While overall insolvency figures across Central and EasternEurope stabilisedoverallin 2025, Coface’s latest CEE Insolvency Study reveals a farmore fragmented reality,withsharp divergences between countriesandsectorsincreasingly shaped by diverging macroeconomicconditions. Keytakeaways:•Insolvencies stable (+0.26%) but sharply fragmented •Polandrecorded the strongest increase, with insolvencies rising by 17.8%,•Manufacturing, construction and transport are facing the strongest increase inbusiness failures At regional level, insolvency proceedings increasedby only 0.26%in 2025,risingfrom 46,043in 2024 to 46,161 in 2025.Inflation eased, interest rates began to decline, energy marketsimprovedand wage pressures softened,offering partial relief to corporate margins.However, these improvements did not translate into a uniform recovery for companiesacross the region. “Headline numbers suggest stabilisation, but the underlying reality is far more complex,”saidMateusz Dadej, Regional Economist at Coface.“The gap between countries iswidening and insolvency dynamics are increasingly shaped by national factors such asregulatory frameworks, fiscal policy and exposure to external demand.” Country-level divergence dominates the regional pictureAt countrylevel,three distinct patterns emerged across the region in 2025.Insolvency trendsdiverged sharply across Central and Eastern Europe, with some economiesrecording double-digit declines while othersshowequally steep rises.Polandrecorded the strongest increase, with insolvencies rising by+17.8%, largely reflecting the expanding use of restructuring procedures rather than a suddendeterioration in business activity.Slovenia(+12.9%),Serbia(+9.6%),the Czech Republic(+8.7%)andRomania(+3.8%)alsosaw risinginsolvency levels, driven by a combination offiscal tightening, political uncertainty, weak external demand and worsening paymentbehaviour.By contrast,Croatia(-18.6%),Slovakia(-14.5%),Lithuania(-13%),Latvia(-7.4%),Hungary(- 6.6%)andBulgaria(-6.2%)reportednotable decreases,indicatinga gradual normalisationafter earlier spikes linked to the energy crisis, regulatorychangesand the unwinding ofexceptional measuresfrom eraof the pandemic.Estonia(+1.1%)remained broadly stable, illustrating how apparent national resilience can still conceal ongoing sector-specific pressure. Persistent pressure in cyclical sectorsWhen viewed through a sectoral lens, insolvency patterns were more consistent across the region.The strongest increases in business failures were seen in manufacturing,constructionand transport,reflecting their sensitivity to financing conditions andfluctuationsin external demand.Although lower interest rates and easing inflationprovidedsome relief, weaker pricing power andthedelayedimpact of previous cost shockscontinued to putpressure on liquidity, particularly for smaller firms. Outlookfor2026:Energy volatility reshapes the risk environmentLooking ahead,any apparent stabilisation is unlikely to last in 2026.Coface expects insolvency risks in Central and Eastern Europe to intensify in 2026 as a renewed energyshock weighs on households and corporations alike. A sharp surge in oil and gas prices isalreadyfeeding through to higher input costs,compressing margins and forcingcompanies to absorb or pass on rising expenses inan environment where demand remainsfragile. As a net importer of energy commodities, the region remains particularly exposed. Mitigation measures such as fuel price caps or tax reductions may offer short-term relieftohousehold budgets. However,they come at the cost of higher fiscal pressure and potentialrisks to supply security. At the same time, rising insolvencies in Germany,the mostimportant trading partnerof the CEE region, increase the danger of spillover effectsthrough trade and supply-chain linkages. “There are supportive factors on the horizon, including accelerated absorptionofEU fundsand stronger external demand later in 2026,”saidJarosław Jaworski, Regional CEO ofCoface Central & Eastern Europe.“However, these positives are unlikely to fully offsetenergyvolatility and external risks.As the operating environment becomes morechallenging again,companies need to focus on liquidity management, cost control andcounterparty risk.” Coface expects business insolvenciesto increaseacross Central and Eastern Europe in 2026,as renewed cost pressures, external dependencies andeconomic policy uncertaintytestcorporate resiliencethroughoutthe region. Read the full reporthere COFACE PRESS OFFICEAdrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15adrien.billet@coface.com HAVASMalcolm Biiga: +33 6 47 09 92 66Lucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82 coface@havas.com COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for80years, Coface