泡泡玛特：年初至今高频数据 - 20+领先指标显示无基本面拐点

Pop Mart: YTD High Frequency Data - 20+ leading indicators pointto no fundamental inflection This Pop Mart Tracker monitors demand worldwide using over 20+ independentthird-party data sources, covering both actual transactions (sales, resale activity)and key demand signals (engagement, search interest).Data through March 2026confirms the transition from deceleration to outright contraction in the U.S., broadeningweakness across the full IP portfolio, and a new signal — the erosion of secret SKUpremiums — that suggests even scarcity-driven demand is now fading. No fundamentalinflection is evident in any monitored indicator. Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Overall, based on the tracker, we forecast total revenue of RMB 43.0bn in 2026E, +16%YoY growth. Revenue remains heavily second-half weighted. We believe Q3 will likely bethe peak revenue quarter overall. Q1 growth rates will be optically stronger. The estimatesare anchored to our trackers across online, offline, in China and overseas channels. Ourforecast Q1 at RMB 6.8bn (+36% YoY) is more of a tracked estimate. Of whichChinaQ1grows at +56%,OverseasQ1 grows at 9%, which includesNorth America’s22% growth. The U.S. has transitioned from deceleration to contraction.U.S. offline credit cardtransactions (YipitData) turned negative at -18.7% YoY MTD March, a deteriorating from+90% in January and +0.8% in February. U.S. Pop Mart web traffic declined -31% YoY, thefourth consecutive month of negative growth. China online GMV however, grew +117%YoY, but Baidu search declined -34% MoM, WeChat was flat, and Red Note interactionscollapsed -64% MoM. Resale prices fell with 86% of all tracked Labubu SKUs now tradingbelow retail. Even Secret SKU pricing erosion for the first time, Twinkle Twinkle Crush onYou secret SKUs declining -23% MoM. China demand divergent: online GMV strength vs. with offline and engagementweakness. 1Q26 combined (offline + online) tracked growth implies +75% YoY,astep-down from +103% in 2H25. China online third-party GMV grew +88% YoY in Q1 (4%MoM), decelerating from +119% in 2H25. China offline 1Q tracked retail sales grew +40%YoY, down from +57% in 2H25 (+85% YoY in Q4). We estimate Q1 China online revenue atRMB 1.7bn (+82% YoY) and offline at RMB 2.6bn (+45% YoY). The deceleration is clear andconsistent across both channels. Engagement metrics are falling: Baidu search declined-34% MoM (CN) and -18% MoM (ENG); Red Note interactions -64% MoM; and WeChatwas flat. The resale market prices down -2% MoM and -35% YoY, and volumes fell a further-5% MoM and -51% YoY. Overseas broader weakness beyond the U.S. remains a concern.The implied mathfrom total overseas website traffic declining -22% YoY against U.S.-specific traffic at -31%YoY. If the current trajectory of U.S. offline contraction persists beyond Q1, the overseasrevenue estimate faces meaningful downside risk. Margin risk compounds as new U.S.stores in premium North American retail face structurally higher rent and labor costs versusChina; if these locations were opened to capitalise on LABUBU's viral moment but now facedeclining traffic, they risk becoming fixed-cost drags generating lower productivity whilecarrying premium lease obligations. Non-LABUBU IP weakness accelerated, shorter IP lifecycles and challenging thediversification thesis.SKU-level resale data shows the entire portfolio saw deterioration.Crybaby non-secret SKUs now trade at discounts -33% below retail, Twinkle TwinkleSavor the Moment at -42%, and Combination Why So Serious at -74%, deeper than evenlegacy Labubu series. Twinkle Twinkle Crush on You secret SKUs fell -23% MoM, the firstsignificant secret-SKU decline across any major series, while Labubu and Crybaby secretSKUs also deteriorated MoM. This suggests that newer IPs are seeing faster lifecycle decaythan LABUBU. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Pop Mart Underperform. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS This report tracks Pop Mart's demand trends across both China and Overseas markets using independent data sources.This includes transaction data, social media engagement, search trends, website analytics, and secondary marketindicators, to capture actual transaction (sales, resale activity) as well as demand signals (engagement, search) across onlineand offline channels. China's data sources include online GMV via major e-commerce platforms (Moojing), offline retail (Meritco), social mediaengagement on Red Note/Baidu/WeChat (Qiangua indices), and secondary market pricing, as well as transaction volumes(Qiandao). Overseas data sources include offline credit card transactions (YipitData), website traffic (Similarweb), Instagramengagement (InsTrack), Google search interest (Trends), app downloads and daily active users (Sensor Tower), and U.S. resalepricing (StockX). Specifically: China Market Data •Transaction Data: Online GMV via major e-commerce platforms and flagship