1Q预览：价格上涨开始生效……等待AI产品

Forecast Change North AmericaUnited States TMTInternet 1Q Preview: Price Increases Take Hold…Waiting for AI Products Valuation & Risks Benjamin Black, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9218 Spotify is set to report 1Q earnings before the market open on Tuesday, April 28th.Since the 4Q print, SPOT has slightly outperformed the market by ~10% (up 12.7%vs the S&P 500 +2.7%), despite questions around 1) the strategy around AI-basedofferings and the likely impact to margins, 2) the likelihood of reacceleration in high-margin advertising revenue, and 3) the emerging competitive environment havetaken a toll on sentiment. In addition, the weakening dollar continues to be asignificant FX headwind to revenue, though less so for profitability given thatSpotify's costs skew toward USD. Kunal Madhukar, CFAResearch Analyst+1-212-250-9357 Raymond WongResearch Associate+1-212-250-2060 For the quarter, SPOT guided to 293mn premium subscribers at quarter-end, or3mnnet adds; we are projecting 293mn, as is the Street, but believe the resonance of theextendedpromo period in 1Q could potentially drive upside to premiumsubscribers. All in all, we model premium revenue of €4.1bn, up 8.6% y/y, in linewith the Street, and that implies a5.6% y/y increase in premium ARPU on FXNbasis. For consolidated revenue, we are projecting €4.5bn, modestly above ourprior estimate primarily on FX, but in line with the Street and the company's guide.We expectgross margins of 32.8%, in line with the guide and consensus and notethat this includes a full-quarter impact of the wholesale escalators (paid to thelabels), but only roughly 1 month impact of the US price increases. We areprojecting Operating income of €712mn, above the guide of €660mn and our prior$662mn estimate, primarily on a more moderate FX headwind, and a biggerpositive impact from social charges in the quarter. Jeff Seiner, CFAResearch Associate+1-212-250-8153 Benjamin Hui, Esq.Research Associate+1-212-250-2064 For2Q26, we are projecting 6mn premium sub net adds, down from 7mnpreviously and below the Street at 7mn (recognizing the potential for a 1Q pull-forward given the promotion and also to better align with the company's trackrecord of guiding to mid-single-digit net additions in the 2Q over the last 2 years).We expectpremium ARPU FXN growth of 8% y/y, and overall MAUs at 771mn(modestly below the Street at 774mn). We are modeling ~40bps q/q improvementinconsolidated gross margins to 33.2%. With 1Q26 including a full-quarterheadwind associated with higher wholesale rates for the labels and "only" a 1month impact from Spotify's US price hike, there are growing expectations forelevated incremental gross margins in 2Q26. Given the company's posture toreinvestments (possibly for expanded AI rights), we suspect reinvestments may bea theme and therefore leave our 2Q consolidated gross margin unchanged at33.2%. Looking further down the P&L, for Operating income we now model€690mn, down from €717mn previously, primarily on higher social charges. 20 April 2026InternetSpotify We continue to believe SPOT presents acompelling opportunity for long-terminvestorscharacterized by the following: nglobal leadershipin the streaming music industry;nconsistent playbook ofadding new featuresthat can bemonetized atattractive margins;nunflagging focus on improving theconsumer experiencewhich leads tohigher stickinessandlowerspriceelasticity;ngiven its vast and globalscale, we believe SPOT is in adesirable spot tolaunch AI-based services, including the ability to create new songs as thepotential for consumers to make their own derivative work;nwe recognize that SPOTwill have to enter into new contracts with thelabelsto offer AI-based services,which could have gross marginimplications, however, given its position as the largest DSP globally, wethink the company can negotiatesuperior unit economics vs. the newer,pure AI-based, providers that lack scale;nnet-net,GenAIis likely to impact the music industry in two ways, in our view– Help create new content or create derivative work – We view both theseoutcomes ascomplementary to Spotify than as a threat;nwe also see the potential for significantreaccelerationin theback half of2026in advertising revenue(which should further support grossmargins), as the company’s tech stack rebuild is now complete, with thefocus shifting to build demand density, especially around programmatic,where we think the opportunity is under-appreciated;nthe companycontinues to demonstrate a disciplined approach to costs,esp. after 3 rounds of rationalization in 2023. We expect expense growth(MSD-HSD y/y) to meaningfully lag revenue growth which should besupportive of ongoing margin expansion and compounding free cash flow. All in, we maintain our Buy rating and PT of $675 that is based on a 25x FY27EP/FCF multiple. Top of funnel trends are robust SPOT reported 751mn MAUs and 290mn subscribers at 4Q25-end, both better thanour/Street expectations; engagement continues to be st