亚太能源安全-韧性：挑战与机遇

APAC:energy import dependence 25%; energy security keyOil shipments from the Strait of Hormuz fell from ~20 mbd pre-conflict to only 2 mbd in EquityAsia PacificEnergy March per the IEA; meanwhile global oil supply dropped 10 mbd in March (~10%). 25%of APAC’s overall fossil fuel, or 80% of its oil supplies are imports,Exh1&2,(MEcomprising ~60% of APAC oil importsExh3for global oil flow).Japan, Singapore andKoreamost vulnerable, with 100% fossil fuel dependance and high petrochemicalnaphtha imports.India, with40% import dependence thanks to its coal buffer, hasheavy reliance on LPG and fertilizer imports. Amid its rich LNG/ coal resources,Australiaimports 80% of its refined oil or ~90% of its diesel, with 1/3 of its diesel isused in the mining sector.Chinabest positioned given its high oil stock, rich coal andcoal-fired power capacity, high EV penetration and complete chemical and solarmanufacturing value chains. Matty Zhao>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4001matty.zhao@bofa.com Chris Oberoi>>Head of APAC ResearchMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)+852 3508 4439chris.oberoi@bofa.com Ming Hsun Lee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) S-T implications: higher oil & coal, feedstock constraints Our globalcommodity team lifted 2026 Brent oil price forecasts to $92.5/b from $60/bpre-conflict, assuming 4.0 mbd supply deficit in 2Q and 2.5 mbd in 2H. According to theIEA, inventory outside the Persian Gulf declined 6.6 mbd in March–Buy onPTR/ ONGC/PTTEP.Further,a tight O&G market provides upside to coal demand (50% of Asiaenergy mix inExh4) via power and coal chemicals–Buy onShenhua/Coal India/WHV.In March, refineries’run rates in the Middle East and Asia have been cut by 6 mbd onfeedstock constraints per the IEA data. This will hurt Korea/ Japan producers (e.g.LotteChem) relying on naphtha import and China Sinopec which cannot pass throughprocurement costs, while firms with alternative feedstocks like coal (e.g.Yankuang) orethane (e.g.Wanhua) should benefit. Nathan Gee, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore) Amish Shah, CFA>>Research AnalystBofAS India Takashi Enomoto>>Research AnalystBofAS Japan Gary Tsang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Yiming Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) L-T beneficiaries: power CAPEX, ESS, lithium & EV We expect the Middle East tensions to trigger a much higher energy security focus inthe long term, benefiting:1)HigherEnergy diversificationneeds to trigger thermalpower CAPEX, and nuclear in China, Japan, and Korea. We see China non-fossil to take55% energy mix in 2030 vs. 41% in 2025; Japan’s non-fossil power generation target tomore than double by 2040 from 2022 levels. Positive on uranium; Buy onDongfang,Doosan, Goldwind, Zhongtian, NTPC.2) ESS–we forecast global BESS CAGR of29% over 24-30E. China could see a 30% 24-30E CAGR. Strong lithium demand and lowinventory support lithium prices. Buy onSungrow, Ganfeng, TianqiandLGES.3)weseeEV penetrationin Greater China/Korea/Japan at 62%/21%/24% in 2030. E2W areemerging as a key beneficiary of higher fuel costs, particularly in ASEAN and India. BuyonCATLandGeely.4)Grid construction and power equipment: electrification coulddrive power grid capex. We see China transformer exports to +30% YoY in 26E. Buy onSieyuan,Nari, Huaming, JInpan, LS Electric, HD Hyundai, PWGR.5)Diversifiedimportsto support long haul tanker demand. Buy onCSET. Peter Wang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong) Bharat Subramanian>>Research AnalystBofAS India Sun Jung Lee>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul) Taekyoung Ha>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Seoul) Cameron Needham>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Australia) Jessie Lo>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Singapore) Komsun Suksumrun^^^Research AnalystKiatnakin Phatra Securities Chen Jiang>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Australia) Joey Yang, CFA>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Hong Kong)joey.z.yang@bofa.com See Exhibit 15 for ourAPAC energysecurity related stock picks. Global oil flow & APAC reliance on import Exhibit2: APAC’s overall fossil fuel import reliance was~25%Select APAC countries – net-import reliance of fossil fuel (2024); negative number represents net export. Details see exhibit 16 APAC energy challenges & resilience Exhibit4:~50% of APAC energy is on coal, China/ India can use coal as short term buffer, most regions may need to increase renewablesPrimary energysupplymix (2024) Exhibit6:Australia: 90% diesel relies on import, mining a/c for 1/3 ofdiesel demand – mining cost +18% if using spot diesl priceCost inflation near term while if block last supply issue is concern Future trends: higher renewable, strongESS, EV and equipment growth Japan’s primary energy supplyinmillionKL Global BESS new installation (GWh) forecast Import reliance calculation of selected countries Asia energy challenges and opportunitiesSupply shock; March’26 oil output fell 10mbdThe disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz–historically